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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.

The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.

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Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024

This chapter provides an overview of the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for global and national agricultural markets. The projections cover production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for 25 agricultural products for the period 2015 to 2024. The chapter starts with a description of the state of agricultural markets in 2014 and explains the main macroeconomic and policy assumptions underlying the projections. In the next sections, consumption and production trends are examined, with a focus on calorie and protein consumption. The chapter also reviews trade patterns showing the relative concentration of exports and dispersion of imports across countries for different commodities. The chapter concludes with global agricultural price projections, which include a stochastic analysis to illustrate how uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and yield levels might affect price projections. Over the next ten years, real prices for all agricultural products are projected to decline from their 2014 levels but remain above their pre-2007 levels.

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