1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.

The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.

English French, Spanish, Chinese

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.26 - Main policy assumptions for dairy markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015

‌A.26Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
A.26Main policy assumptions for dairy markets
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2012-14est
‌2015‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk target price 1
CADc/litre
74.7
 
75.3
 
77.3
 
79.6
 
81.1
 
82.4
 
83.5
 
84.5
 
85.4
 
86.3
 
87.2
 
Butter support price
CAD/t
7 387.9
 
7 526.5
 
7 601.7
 
7 677.7
 
7 754.5
 
7 832.1
 
7 910.4
 
7 989.5
 
8 069.4
 
8 150.1
 
8 231.6
 
SMP support price
CAD/t
6 407.5
 
6 348.2
 
6 577.0
 
6 780.4
 
6 966.8
 
7 089.4
 
7 172.5
 
7 269.5
 
7 359.7
 
7 457.6
 
7 560.5
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
20.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
245.6
 
Subsidised export limits (WTO)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheese
kt pw
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
SMP
kt pw
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk and milk products 3
mln EUR
0
 
827
 
835
 
843
 
853
 
861
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
846
 
Milk quota
kt pw
150 030
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Butter reference price 4
EUR/t
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
2 217.5
 
SMP reference price
EUR/t
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
1 698.0
 
Butter tariff-quotas
kt pw
87.8
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
Cheese tariff-quotas
kt pw
109.7
 
111.0
 
111.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
113.0
 
113.0
 
113.0
 
114.0
 
114.0
 
Subsidised export limits (WTO)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
411.6
 
Cheese
kt pw
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
331.7
 
SMP
kt pw
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
323.4
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Direct payments
JPY/kg
12.4
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
12.6
 
Cheese tariff 5
%
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
31.2
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
In-quota tariff
%
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
35.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
732.6
 
SMP
kt pw
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
115.7
 
In-quota tariff
%
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
15.8
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
210.4
 
WMP
kt pw
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
24.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
316.2
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
89.0
 
SMP
kt pw
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
WMP
kt pw
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
176.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Tariff-quotas
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cheese
kt pw
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
9.4
 
In-quota tariff
%
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
100.0
 
60.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
SMP
kt pw
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
90.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
62.0
 
60.0
 
50.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
45.0
 
Liconsa social program
mln MXN
1 074.5
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
1 086.8
 
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
15.0
 
15.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter tariff-quota
kt pw
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
13.1
 
In-quota tariff
%
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
10.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
112.0
 
Cheese tariff-quota
kt pw
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
135.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
12.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
87.0
 
Subsidised export limits (WTO)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Butter
kt pw
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
SMP
kt pw
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
68.0
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk tariff
%
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
80.0
 
Butter tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Cheese tariff
%
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
40.0
 
Whole milk powder tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
SOUTH AFRICA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Milk powder tariff-quota
kt pw
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
80.8
 
Note: Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
For manufacturing milk.
2.
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
3.
Implemented in 19 Member States.
4.
Buying-in when market prices go below the reference price for SMP and 90% of the reference price for butter is operable automatically for a maximum quantity of 109 000 tonnes for SMP and 50 000 tonnes for butter (before 2014, this ceiling was set at 30 000 tonnes). Above that ceiling intervention can take place only via tender.
5.
Excludes processed cheese.
Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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