1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.

The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.

English French, Spanish, Chinese

From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.7 - Main policy assumptions for cereal markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015

‌A.7Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
A.7Main policy assumptions for cereal markets
  Marketing year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2012-14est
‌2015‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Crops export tax
%
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
21.0
 
Rice export tax
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tariff-quotas 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
kt
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
350.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
61.7
 
Barley
kt
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
399.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
58.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION 2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Voluntary coupled support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat 3
mln EUR
0.0
 
86.9
 
89.1
 
90.7
 
90.0
 
89.3
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
89.7
 
Rice 4
mln EUR
0.0
 
56.7
 
56.4
 
56.1
 
55.9
 
55.7
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
55.6
 
Cereal reference price 5
EUR/t
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
101.3
 
Direct payments ceilings 6
bln EUR
41.6
 
41.6
 
41.5
 
41.5
 
41.6
 
41.6
 
42.2
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
42.3
 
Rice reference price 7
EUR/t
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
150.0
 
Wheat tariff-quota 1
kt
3 517.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
3 527.0
 
Coarse grain tariff-quota 1
kt
3 638.8
 
3 811.1
 
3 812.1
 
3 813.1
 
3 813.1
 
3 814.1
 
3 815.1
 
3 816.1
 
3 817.1
 
3 818.1
 
3 818.1
 
Subsidised export limits (WTO) 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
Mt
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
15.4
 
Coarse grains 8
Mt
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
10.5
 
JAPAN
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
5 740.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
55.0
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
1 369.0
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
39.0
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
682.2
 
In-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
'000 JPY/t
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
341.0
 
KOREA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
6 102.0
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
304.7
 
Barley tariff-quota
kt
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
23.6
 
In-quota tariff
%
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
20.0
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
271.4
 
Rice quota 9
kt
388.3
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
408.7
 
In-quota tariff
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
MERCOSUR
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Coarse grain tariff
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Rice tariff
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
MEXICO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Barley import tariff
%
91.7
 
45.0
 
15.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
ARC participation rate
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
%
13.4
 
40.3
 
40.3
 
40.3
 
40.3
 
27.8
 
27.8
 
27.8
 
27.8
 
27.8
 
27.8
 
Coarse grains
%
20.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
60.0
 
36.3
 
36.3
 
36.3
 
36.3
 
36.3
 
36.3
 
Wheat loan rate
USD/t
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
108.0
 
Maize loan rate
USD/t
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
76.8
 
Subsidised export limits (WTO) 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat
Mt
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
14.5
 
Coarse grains
Mt
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
CHINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat tariff-quota
kt
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
9 636
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
65.0
 
Coarse grains tariff
%
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Maize tariff-quota
kt
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
7 200
 
In-quota tariff
%
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
41.7
 
Rice tariff-quota
kt
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
5 320
 
In-quota tariff
%
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Out-of-quota tariff
%
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
51.7
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Minimum support price
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Rice
INR/t
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Wheat
INR/t
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
0
 
Wheat tariff
%
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
87.5
 
Maize tariff
%
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
50.0
 
Rice tariff
%
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
30.0
 
RUSSIAN FEDERATION
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Wheat ad valorem import tax
%
1.7
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Rice tariff equivalent of import barriers
%
13.3
 
10.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Coarse grains tariff equivalent of import barriers
%
2.7
 
2.7
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Coarse grain specific tariff
RUB/t
4.7
 
4.5
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Coarse grain ad valorem import tax
%
2.7
 
2.7
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions.
Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated.
The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Year beginning 1 July.
2.
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%).
3.
Mainly for durum wheat. Implemented in 6 Member States.
4.
Implemented in 6 Member States.
5.
Buying-in at the fixed reference price is operable automatically only for common wheat up to a maximum quantity of 3 million tons per marketing year. Above that ceiling and for durum wheat, maize and barley intervention can take place only via tender.
6.
Estimated net amounts for all direct payments based on Annex II of EU Regulation No 1307/2013, accounting for the transfers between direct aids and rural development envelopes.
7.
Intervention is set at zero tonnes per marketing year. However, the Commission may initiate intervention if market requires.
8.
The export volume excludes 0.4 Mt of exported potato starch. The original limit on subsidised exports is 10.8 Mt.
9.
Milled rice basis.
Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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