OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015
This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.
The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.
From Chapter:
Statistical Annex
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015
| A.7 | Main policy assumptions for cereal markets | ||||||||||||
| A.7 | Main policy assumptions for cereal markets | ||||||||||||
| Marketing year | |||||||||||||
| | | | Average 2012-14est | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| | ARGENTINA | ||||||||||||
| | Crops export tax | % | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 |
| | Rice export tax | % | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| | CANADA | ||||||||||||
| | Tariff-quotas 1 | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat | kt | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 | 61.7 |
| | Barley | kt | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 | 58.0 |
| | EUROPEAN UNION 2 | ||||||||||||
| | Voluntary coupled support | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat 3 | mln EUR | 0.0 | 86.9 | 89.1 | 90.7 | 90.0 | 89.3 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 | 89.7 |
| | Rice 4 | mln EUR | 0.0 | 56.7 | 56.4 | 56.1 | 55.9 | 55.7 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 | 55.6 |
| | Cereal reference price 5 | EUR/t | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 | 101.3 |
| | Direct payments ceilings 6 | bln EUR | 41.6 | 41.6 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 41.6 | 41.6 | 42.2 | 42.3 | 42.3 | 42.3 | 42.3 |
| | Rice reference price 7 | EUR/t | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| | Wheat tariff-quota 1 | kt | 3 517.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 | 3 527.0 |
| | Coarse grain tariff-quota 1 | kt | 3 638.8 | 3 811.1 | 3 812.1 | 3 813.1 | 3 813.1 | 3 814.1 | 3 815.1 | 3 816.1 | 3 817.1 | 3 818.1 | 3 818.1 |
| | Subsidised export limits (WTO) 1 | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat | Mt | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 | 15.4 |
| | Coarse grains 8 | Mt | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| | JAPAN | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff-quota | kt | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 | 5 740.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 |
| | Barley tariff-quota | kt | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 | 1 369.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 | 39.0 |
| | Rice tariff-quota | kt | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 | 682.2 |
| | In-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | '000 JPY/t | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 | 341.0 |
| | KOREA | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff | % | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| | Maize tariff-quota | kt | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 | 6 102.0 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 | 304.7 |
| | Barley tariff-quota | kt | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.6 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 | 271.4 |
| | Rice quota 9 | kt | 388.3 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 | 408.7 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| | MERCOSUR | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff | % | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| | Coarse grain tariff | % | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| | Rice tariff | % | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| | MEXICO | ||||||||||||
| | Barley import tariff | % | 91.7 | 45.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | UNITED STATES | ||||||||||||
| | ARC participation rate | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat | % | 13.4 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 27.8 |
| | Coarse grains | % | 20.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 60.0 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.3 |
| | Wheat loan rate | USD/t | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 | 108.0 |
| | Maize loan rate | USD/t | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 | 76.8 |
| | Subsidised export limits (WTO) 1 | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat | Mt | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| | Coarse grains | Mt | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| | CHINA | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat tariff-quota | kt | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 | 9 636 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| | Coarse grains tariff | % | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| | Maize tariff-quota | kt | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 | 7 200 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| | Rice tariff-quota | kt | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 | 5 320 |
| | In-quota tariff | % | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| | Out-of-quota tariff | % | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 51.7 |
| | INDIA | ||||||||||||
| | Minimum support price | ||||||||||||
| | Rice | INR/t | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Wheat | INR/t | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Wheat tariff | % | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 | 87.5 |
| | Maize tariff | % | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| | Rice tariff | % | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| | RUSSIAN FEDERATION | ||||||||||||
| | Wheat ad valorem import tax | % | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Rice tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 13.3 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Coarse grains tariff equivalent of import barriers | % | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Coarse grain specific tariff | RUB/t | 4.7 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| | Coarse grain ad valorem import tax | % | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Note: Marketing year: See Glossary of Terms for definitions. Average 2012-14est: Data for 2014 are estimated. The sources for tariffs and Tariff Rate Quotas are the national questionnaire reply, UNCTAD and WTO. | |||||||||||||
| Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer | |||||||||||||
Year beginning 1 July. | |||||||||||||
Till 2014, EU farmers can be granted the Single payment scheme (SPS) or the Single area payment scheme (SAPS), which provides flat-rate payments independent from current production decisions and market developments. From 2015, it becomes the Basic payment scheme (BPS) and it shall account for 68% maximum of the national direct payment envelopes. On top of this, from 2015 onwards, new compulsory policy instruments are introduced: the Green Payment (30%) and young farmer scheme (2%). | |||||||||||||
Mainly for durum wheat. Implemented in 6 Member States. | |||||||||||||
Implemented in 6 Member States. | |||||||||||||
Buying-in at the fixed reference price is operable automatically only for common wheat up to a maximum quantity of 3 million tons per marketing year. Above that ceiling and for durum wheat, maize and barley intervention can take place only via tender. | |||||||||||||
Estimated net amounts for all direct payments based on Annex II of EU Regulation No 1307/2013, accounting for the transfers between direct aids and rural development envelopes. | |||||||||||||
Intervention is set at zero tonnes per marketing year. However, the Commission may initiate intervention if market requires. | |||||||||||||
The export volume excludes 0.4 Mt of exported potato starch. The original limit on subsidised exports is 10.8 Mt. | |||||||||||||
Milled rice basis. | |||||||||||||
| Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en | |||||||||||||