1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015

This edition of the Agricultural Outlook – the twenty-first OECD edition and the eleventh prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) – provides projections to 2024 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. The 2015 report provides a special focus on prospects and challenges for Brazilian agriculture.

The market projections not only cover OECD member countries (European Union as a region) but also FAO member countries, notably Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, People's Republic of China and South Africa.

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From Chapter: Statistical Annex
.

Table A.28 - Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets

English French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015 - © OECD 2015

‌A.28Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
A.28Main policy assumptions for biofuel markets
‌‌
‌‌
‌2014est‌
‌2015‌
‌2016‌
‌2017‌
‌2018‌
‌2019‌
‌2020‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
ARGENTINA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Export tax
%
11.8
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
BRAZIL
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Incorporation mandate 1
%
18.3
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
19.9
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
BRL/hl
13.5
 
19.5
 
18.0
 
16.3
 
14.6
 
14.8
 
15.1
 
15.6
 
16.1
 
16.5
 
14.1
 
Import tariffs
%
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
CANADA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
CAD/hl
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
Import tariffs
CAD/hl
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Incorporation mandate 1
%
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
3.4
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
5.0
 
4.0
 
3.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
CAD/hl
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
Incorporation mandate 1
%
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Direct support
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Federal
CAD/hl
10.0
 
8.0
 
6.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Provincial
CAD/hl
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
COLOMBIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
9.7
 
Blending target 3,4
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
9.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 4
%
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
10.0
 
EUROPEAN UNION
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Biofuel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Energy share in fuel consumption 5
%
5.2
 
5.6
 
6.0
 
6.4
 
6.8
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
EUR/hl
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
18.3
 
Import tariffs
EUR/hl
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
19.2
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Tax concessions 2
EUR/hl
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
19.4
 
Import tariffs
%
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
INDIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
8.0
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
Share of biofuel mandates in total fuel consumption
%
3.7
 
4.6
 
5.5
 
6.4
 
7.3
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
8.2
 
INDONESIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
26.3
 
Blending target 4
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 4
%
10.0
 
11.0
 
13.0
 
14.0
 
15.0
 
17.0
 
18.0
 
19.0
 
21.0
 
22.0
 
24.0
 
MALAYSIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Blending target 4
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 4
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
PERU
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Blending target 4
%
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Blending target 4
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
THAILAND
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Blending target 4
%
8.3
 
9.3
 
10.4
 
11.4
 
12.4
 
13.5
 
14.5
 
15.6
 
16.6
 
17.6
 
18.7
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Blending target 4
%
5.0
 
5.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
6.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
UNITED STATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Renewable Fuel Standard 6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
mln L
60 793
 
61 141
 
61 247
 
60 794
 
60 460
 
60 051
 
59 841
 
59 620
 
59 348
 
59 086
 
58 835
 
advanced mandate
mln L
8 713
 
8 875
 
8 894
 
8 841
 
8 819
 
8 772
 
8 748
 
8 796
 
8 792
 
8 799
 
8 817
 
cellulosic ethanol
mln L
0
 
0
 
8
 
14
 
27
 
52
 
99
 
187
 
356
 
677
 
1 286
 
biodiesel
mln L
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
4 845
 
Ethanol
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import surcharge
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Import tariffs (undenatured)
%
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
2.40
 
Import tariffs (denatured)
%
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
1.90
 
Blenders tax credit
USD/hl
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Biodiesel
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Import tariffs
%
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
4.60
 
Blenders tax credit
USD/hl
26.42
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
0.00
 
Note: 2014est: Data for 2014 are estimated.
For many countries, shares for ethanol and biodiesel are not individually specified in the legislation.
Figures are based on a combination of the EU mandate in the context of the Renewable Energy Directive and the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) in the EU member states.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Share in respective fuel type, energy equivalent.
2.
Difference between tax rates applying to fossil and biogen fuels.
3.
Applies to cities with more than 500 000 inhabitants.
4.
Expressed in volume share.
5.
According to the current Renewable energy Directive 2009/28/EC, the energy content of biofuel other than first-generation biofuels counts twice towards meeting the target. It is assumed that other sources than biofuel will help filling the 10% transport energy target.
6.
The total, advanced and cellulosic mandates are not at the levels defined in EISA. As those mandates are subject to uncertainties regarding EPA implementation, the following assumptions were taken to construct the baseline: the amount of ethanol being consumed in low blend mixes in the United States will not exceed the "blend wall" level of 10% and the development of the flex-fuel vehicle fleet will be limited. This means that the total mandate is assumed to be 60% lower than what is specified in RFS2 for 2024.
Source: OECD/FAO (2015), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database). doi:dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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