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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014

This twentieth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the tenth prepared jointly with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), provides market projections to 2023 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish across 41 countries and 12 regions: OECD member countries (European Union as a region), key non-OECD agricultural producers (such as India, China, Brazil, Russian Federation and Argentina) and groups of smaller non-OECD economies in a more aggregated form. This edition includes a special focus on India.

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Fish and seafood

This chapter illustrates the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for the fish sector for 2014-23. The analysis of the market prospects for fish covers the developments expected in its prices, production, use (human consumption, fishmeal and fish oil) and trade (imports and exports). The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the dynamic policy specific partial equilibrium fish model. At present, it is a stand-alone model using the same macroeconomic assumptions and the same feed and food prices employed or generated by the agricultural market model Aglink-Cosimo. The chapter also includes a box that discusses the recycling of fish residue in the fishmeal and oil market. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties which might affect the medium-term outlook for fish. Major emphasis is given to fisheries policies, and specific constraints influencing capture and aquaculture production.

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