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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014

This twentieth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the tenth prepared jointly with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), provides market projections to 2023 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish across 41 countries and 12 regions: OECD member countries (European Union as a region), key non-OECD agricultural producers (such as India, China, Brazil, Russian Federation and Argentina) and groups of smaller non-OECD economies in a more aggregated form. This edition includes a special focus on India.

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Cereals

This chapter describes the market situation and the latest set of quantitative medium-term projections for world and national cereal markets for the ten-year period, 2014-23. It covers the developments expected in national and global wheat, coarse grains and rice prices, production, use (human consumption, industrial and feed use), trade (imports and exports) and stocks in the medium-term. The quantitative projections are developed with the aid of the partial equilibrium Aglink-Cosimo model of world agriculture. The chapter also includes four boxes that explain the importance of public stockholding for food security, the structural changes in world feed markets, the campaign to prevent bread waste in Turkey and the contribution of agricultural investments to stabilising international rice price volatility under climate change. The chapter concludes with a discussion of some main issues and uncertainties that may have an impact on the medium-term outlook for cereals. These include weather events, policies, and specific market events influencing cereal production, consumption and trade.

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