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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

The nineteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a special feature on China.

Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets.

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Sugar

World sugar market fundamentals are decidedly bearish at the start of the Outlook. World prices have continued to follow a downward trend in the last 12 months, and with lower price volatility, as markets adjust to a third consecutive year of a global sugar surplus (). Higher global production can be largely attributed to a recovery in output the world’s largest producer, Brazil, although harvests were also larger in the European Union, the United States, Mexico, India and China. As a result, world raw sugar prices have fallen by 26% in the last 12 months and white sugar prices by 20%. Sugar prices are expected to continue to ease back through the remainder of 2012/13 on the back of abundant supplies and increasing stock cover.See the Glossary for the definition of crop marketing years for sugar and products. The replenishment of stocks will elevate stocks-to-use to a six-year high at the start of the Outlook and effectively signal the end of the period of low stocks, which has been a feature of the past four years.

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