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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

The nineteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a special feature on China.

Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets.

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Overview of the OECD-FAO Outlook 2013-2022

The Outlook depicts relatively favourable prospects for world agriculture to 2022. In the near term, a dichotomy exists between world crop and livestock sectors. Crop agriculture is characterised by falling prices relative to recent peaks in response to projected large supplies and stock replenishment induced by high prices in recent years. In contrast, livestock product prices are high and increasing at the start of the outlook period, driven up by high feed costs and reduced global livestock inventories and production. Beyond the near term, markets, in general, are expected to begin to tighten and for agricultural prices to firm, with prices in real terms remaining relatively flat for most commodities. Nevertheless, agricultural commodity prices are held above pre 2007 levels, in nominal and real terms, by strong demand, higher input costs and slower productivity growth over the projection period.

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