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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

The nineteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a special feature on China.

Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets.

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Meat

The market situation for the meat sector is generally characterised by high nominal output prices, underpinned on the demand side by rising incomes from rapid growth in the developing countries, and on the supply side by high input costs, notably for feed grains, energy related inputs and labour. The combined effect of higher output prices and increased production costs tend to favor production in developing countries, where low input production systems prevail. Meat production growth has slowed, notably for poultry which in the past has experienced the highest rates of output increases. Meat demand in developing countries continues to be strong as higher incomes and urbanisation lead to food consumption changes favouring increased proteins from animal sources in diets. Consumption levels have risen substantially in many emerging economies, particularly in China and other fast growing Asian countries in the last decade. However, per capita meat consumption has been stagnant in the OECD area over the last ten years. While growth in both production and trade is envisaged in the short term for poultry, pig, sheep and buffalo meats, bovine meat markets will initially be constrained by depleted herd numbers in major exporting regions, notably in the developed countries. Developing countries will continue to strengthen their role in dictating changes in global meat production, trade and consumption.

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