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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013

The nineteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook, and the ninth prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), provides projections to 2022 for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Notable in the 2013 report is the inclusion of cotton for the first time and a special feature on China.

Higher costs and strong demand are expected to keep commodity prices well above historical averages with a high risk of price volatility given tight stocks, a changeable policy environment and increasing weather-related production risks. China is projected to maintain its self-sufficiency in certain key food commodities while increasing its trade and integration in world agricultural markets.

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Cotton

World cotton prices in 2012 were influenced by competing forces, with world demand rising after a two-year decline and elevated stock levels creating uncertainty about future prospects. High prices for grains and oilseeds helped sustain cotton prices, which nonetheless were below those a year earlier for virtually the entire marketing year. World cotton stocks rose for the third consecutive year, but most of the increase was accounted for by official reserve building in China. Consumption continued to decline in China – the world’s largest industrial consumer by a large margin – but rose in a number of other countries as China’s yarn exports rose sharply. Lower world production is widely foreseen in the coming year, with early reports indicating an intention of US farmers to plant 4 Mha, a 19% decline. China’s area is also expected to decline, despite a relatively high support price.

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