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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

This is the seventeenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the seventh co-edition prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This report provides world market trends for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and, for the first time, the fisheries sector over the 2011-20 period. This edition also includes an evaluation of recent developments, key issues and uncertainties in those commodity markets. The projections are the result of close co-operation with national experts in OECD and non-OECD countries. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the projections.  In the context of the G20 discussions on agriculture, a section of the report is devoted this year to the policy responses to price volatility.

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Sugar

The world sugar market continues to experience considerable price volatility. The world indicator price for raw sugar witnessed a succession of peaks and downward corrections in 2010 before soaring to a 30-year high of USD 36.08 cts/lb (USD 795.4/t) in February 2011. Market fundamentals driving volatile prices were large global sugar deficits in the previous two seasons and adverse weather in a number of countries that reduced the size of the expected rebound in production to higher prices (Figure 6.1). World sugar stocks, which had already been drawn down, fell to their lowest level in 20 years in 2010-11, supporting higher as well as more volatile market prices.

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Graphs

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