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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

This is the seventeenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the seventh co-edition prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This report provides world market trends for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and, for the first time, the fisheries sector over the 2011-20 period. This edition also includes an evaluation of recent developments, key issues and uncertainties in those commodity markets. The projections are the result of close co-operation with national experts in OECD and non-OECD countries. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the projections.  In the context of the G20 discussions on agriculture, a section of the report is devoted this year to the policy responses to price volatility.

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Special feature

What is driving price volatility?

Last year’s Outlook featured an assessment of price volatility, price transmission and policy prescriptions which may help encourage more transparent and efficient markets, as well as address the impacts of volatility, especially on poor consumers. By August 2010, two months after the release of the Outlook, the anticipation of further bouts of high price volatility was realised as a shortfall in crop production (see the Cereals Chapter), and policy actions so impacted markets that prices rose precipitously toward 2007-08 levels by early 2011. International concern over volatility has been pronounced and in November 2010 the G20 at its Seoul Summit, requested that “…the FAO, IFAD, IMF, OECD, UNCTAD, WFP and the World Bank work with key stakeholders to develop options for G20 considerations on how to better mitigate and manage the risks associated with price volatility of food and other agricultural commodities without distorting market behaviour, ultimately to protect the most vulnerable.”

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