OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

This is the seventeenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the seventh co-edition prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This report provides world market trends for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and, for the first time, the fisheries sector over the 2011-20 period. This edition also includes an evaluation of recent developments, key issues and uncertainties in those commodity markets. The projections are the result of close co-operation with national experts in OECD and non-OECD countries. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the projections.  In the context of the G20 discussions on agriculture, a section of the report is devoted this year to the policy responses to price volatility.

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The meat sector is adjusting to the supply and demand imbalances in the feed sector of the past three years, which has incited swings in feed prices. Beef and sheep meat farmers are enjoying a period of higher prices, but those producing white meats, require supply adjustment to avoid further financial difficulties. Faced with high production costs, restricted access to credit, high energy costs and a subdued demand during the financial crisis, cattle farmers culled their herds. This initially resulted in a sustained supply of meat products, and prices fell sharply. Prices started to recover as economies pulled out of recession. The red meats sector had liquidated breeding animals and was unable to rapidly satisfy the increasing post-recession demand. As a result, prices recovered strongly in 2010. The supply of pig and particularly poultry meat responded more quickly to the higher demand and, as a result, prices recovered at a slower pace than those of red meats.

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