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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011

This is the seventeenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the seventh co-edition prepared jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This report provides world market trends for biofuels, cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats, dairy products and, for the first time, the fisheries sector over the 2011-20 period. This edition also includes an evaluation of recent developments, key issues and uncertainties in those commodity markets. The projections are the result of close co-operation with national experts in OECD and non-OECD countries. A jointly developed modelling system, based on the OECD’s AGLINK and on the FAO’s COSIMO models, facilitates consistency in the projections.  In the context of the G20 discussions on agriculture, a section of the report is devoted this year to the policy responses to price volatility.

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Dairy

After sharply increasing (2007), dramatically falling (2008) and quickly rebounding (2009), international dairy prices remained at relatively high but stable levels over much of 2010. Toward the end of the year and early 2011, global prices strengthened rapidly but stayed well below the peak levels of 2007/08 with the exception of record high butter prices (Oceania). Much of the strength in the dairy markets could have been attributed to a combination of strong demand in the Russian Federation and South East Asia, and constrained supplies from Oceania. Imports of milk powders to China have soared, fuelled by rising income but also food safety concerns, in the aftermath of the milk adulteration incidents. Steep increases in grain and energy prices have put upward pressure on feed costs, curtailed supply expansion and have been additional factors underpinning prices. The global dairy sector is entering into a decade of relatively high prices, continuing strong demand for milk and dairy products but also higher production costs and possibly continued market variability. The outlook period starts amid geopolitical turmoil in North Africa and Middle East, the uncertain impact of the earthquake tragedy in Japan, and a global economy adjusting to higher energy costs.

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