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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2010

This is the sixteenth edition of the Agricultural Outlook and the sixth co-edition prepared by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). This edition covers the outlook for commodity markets during the 2010 to 2019 period, and brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both organisations. The report analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as for biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices of the commodities analysed.

The macroeconomic assumptions that condition the commodity projections examined are more positive in this year’s edition as compared to last year. The anticipated return to global economic growth, a rising population, emerging biofuel markets, and a higher cost structure are expected to underpin international commodity markets and prices over the outlook period under study. Developing countries are expected to be the driving force behind the expected growth in agricultural production, consumption and trade.

This year’s report also includes a special section on price volatility and price transmission from world to domestic markets. Governments are concerned about price volatility because it affects farm viability, food security and needed investment. The report analyses the evidence of and changes in price volatility over the longer term and summarises policy advice from both FAO and OECD on this issue.

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Dairy

International dairy markets have experienced a dramatic rise and fall in recent years. After a strong run-up in prices, the market situation reversed in the course of 2008. Demand retreated while supply increased in reaction to strong price incentives. This coincided with the commencement of the global economic crises and by early 2009 prices fell by half from mid 2008 levels. As a result, dairy product stocks started to accumulate, most importantly in the United States and the European Union. The dramatic fall in prices from the peaks of 2008 has shaken the global dairy sector. In many countries the relatively stronger market situation witnessed in previous years led to a rethinking and mobilisation of the sector’s longer term strategy (for example, the European Commission has established a High Level Expert’s Group on milk to discuss medium and longer term arrangements for the dairy sector, given the abolition of the current quota system in 2015).

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