OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009
This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints.
The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda. This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.
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Oilseeds and Oilseed Products
The gradual upward trend in prices for oilseeds, oils and meals that started in the 2005 marketing year accelerated during the course of the 2006 marketing year. In the first half of calendar year 2008, prices for all three product, groups peaked at levels not recorded for decades, only to drop again sharply during the second half. The lingering price strength since the beginning of the 2007 marketing year reflected a tighter global supply and demand outlook for oilseeds and derived products, as well as spill-over effects from related grain markets. Stronger maize prices resulted in shifts in land allocation at the expense of soybeans which halted the rapid oilseed area expansion seen in previous years. As a result, seed-derived protein meal and oilseeds oils availability stagnated in 2007 and 2008. Because of the continued expansion of palm oil production, the oils and fats sector was less affected, yet steadily expanding food and biofuel feedstock demand resulted in tightening oil and fat markets. These developments made marked reductions in inventories of oilseeds and products inevitable, causing stock-to-use ratios for oils and meals in 2007 to fall to critical levels. Compared to the 2006 season, these developments led to an increase in international oilseed prices by almost 70% during 2007.
Also available in: French
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