OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009
This 15th edition of the Agricultural Outlook edition presents the outlook for commodity markets during the 2009 to 2018 period, and analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities. 

This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints.

The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda.  This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.

English Also available in: French, Spanish

How Resilient is Agriculture to the Global Economic Crisis?

This year’s Agricultural Outlook was produced under particularly unusual circumstances. What makes this year exceptional is the fact that the global macroeconomic environment – which forms the bedrock of our agricultural market projections – continues to deteriorate.

Since the beginning of 2009 there has been a constant flow of increasingly pessimistic macroeconomic news from virtually all sources. The OECD in its Interim Economic Report for March 2009 concluded that the world economy is in the midst of its deepest and most synchronised recession since the post war period (OECD, 2009a). The result is lower output, reduced trade and capital flows and higher unemployment world wide as well as a steep decline in consumer and business confidence. This global downturn in economic activity is accompanied by a precipitous decline in international trade. The collapse in international trade may explain why the crisis has spread so rapidly to so many economies. Both the credit crisis and the drop in demand, amplified by the prevalence of global supply chains, are seen as major causes of the collapse in international trade flows.

English Also available in: French

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