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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009
This 15th edition of the Agricultural Outlook edition presents the outlook for commodity markets during the 2009 to 2018 period, and analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities. 

This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints.

The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda.  This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.

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Dairy

Strong expansion in demand and a squeeze on supply resulting from adverse weather and high production costs caused international prices to rocket in 2007. The market situation reversed dramatically in the course of 2008, to some extent a logical consequence of an unprecedented run-up in prices. Demand retreated as dairy ingredients were quickly being replaced by cheaper substitutes in food manufacturing. Overall, supply increased in reaction to strong price incentives while demand retreated, but the response on all these fronts has been stronger than anticipated and the drop-off in world demand ensuing from the global economic crises has intensified the downward pressure on dairy prices.

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