OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2009
This 15th edition of the Agricultural Outlook edition presents the outlook for commodity markets during the 2009 to 2018 period, and analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels. It provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities. 

This edition of the Outlook was prepared in a period of unprecedented financial market turmoil and rapidly deteriorating global economic prospects. Because macroeconomic conditions are changing so quickly, this report complements the standard baseline projections with an analysis of revised short–term GDP prospects and alternative GDP recovery paths. Lower GDP scenarios result in lower commodity prices, with reductions in crop and biofuel prices about one-half those for livestock products. A sensitivity analysis to highly uncertain crude oil prices shows the important links between energy and agricultural prices. The Outlook also reports on a survey of various actors in the agri-food chain in terms of the current impacts of the global economic crisis and credit market constraints.

The issue of food security and the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the rising demand for food remains very high on the international political agenda.  This report provides a brief overview of critical factors such as land availability, productivity gains, water usage and climate change, and suggests that agricultural production could be significantly increased, provided there is sufficient investment in research, infrastructure and technological change, particularly in developing countries.

English Also available in: French, Spanish


Can Agriculture Meet the Growing Demand for Food?

There is unprecedented international interest in the issue of food security. This is not surprising given the total number of undernourished people in the world reached 963 million in 2008, nearly 15% of the world’s population. The World Bank’s 2008 World Development Report launched this revival by calling for greater investment in agriculture in developing countries if the goals of halving extreme poverty and hunger by 2015 are to be realised. An FAO conference in 2008 stressed that food security was one of the biggest challenges of the century, noting that increased agricultural investment and enhanced productivity was crucial. The 2008 G-8 Summit in Japan called on agricultural ministers to draw up concrete proposals on world food security and a UN Task Force on Global Food Security was set up to promote a unified approach to emergency relief and renewed investment in agriculture.

English Also available in: French

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