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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2008

This 2008 edition of the OECD/FAO Agricultural Outlook covers the outlook for commodity markets during the 2008 to 2017 period, and brings together the commodity, policy and country expertise of both Organisations. The report analyses world market trends for the main agricultural products, as well as biofuels and provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of the included commodities.  This publication includes Statlinks, URLs linking to Excel® spreadsheet files containing background data, as well as a special chapter on high prices which analyses whether they are here to stay. The market projections cover OECD countries, as well as other key agricultural players including India, China, Brazil, the Russian Federation and Argentina, and many other non-OECD countries and regions.  In total, the projections encompass 39 countries and 19 regions.

"...the single best source of statistical data and forecast analysis for the world's commodities markets. Highly recommended"

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Macroeconomic and Policy Assumptions

Economic activity is now slowing with the distinct possibly of the US, the world’s leading economy, sinking into recession in 2008. The slowdown in the US and some other OECD economies is occurring despite continuing robust economic conditions in many other parts of the world. One cause of this moderation is the global credit crunch that has buffeted financial markets and shares worldwide recently. However, this shock has occurred in a period of robust economic performance and this has to some extent softened its impact. Another underlying cause is the cooling of housing markets, which will act to reduce consumers’ wealth and slow down growth in the future. Adding to the downside risks, is the fact that the financial turmoil that began over the 2007 summer has not yet come to an end, with the eventual fallout on the real economy still hard to gauge. At the same time, increases in the prices of oil, food and other commodities have led to a pick-up in headline inflation rates in many countries, reducing purchasing power and consumer demand, the stalwart of growth in many OECD economies.

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