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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007
This thirteenth edition of the annual Agricultural Outlook - and the third prepared jointly with the FAO - provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on projections that extend to 2016 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of mainly temperate zone agricultural commodities. These projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions, population growth, national agricultural and trade policies, production technologies, and weather conditions.  It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes. In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including the agricultural giants of India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and several least developed countries.

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Sugar

World sugar prices experienced considerable volatility over the course of 2005-06, reaching a 25-year high in early 2006. Having strengthened since 2003, world prices surged in late 2005 and early 2006 under the pressure of tight global supplies and growing linkages between international sugar and oil prices, and then fell back again later in the year. As the deficit in the global sugar balance contracted throughout the remainder of 2006, world prices steadily declined. For 2006-07, the global sugar balance has moved strongly into surplus as production in both exporting and importing countries responded to higher world sugar prices in the previous marketing year. World raw sugar prices are projected to decline by nearly 27% to average around USD 11.5 cents/lb (USD 253.5/t) in 2006-07, due to abundant supplies, higher stocks and an emerging global surplus. The white sugar margin remained firm at the end of 2006 due to tighter supplies, following the withdrawal of large quantities of high quality white sugar exports from the world market with reform of the European Union sugar regime. As a consequence, white sugar prices are expected to fall in 2006-07, but at a slower pace than for raw sugar, due to delays in filling the gap in supplies left by the retraction of the EU from the world market.

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