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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006

This twelfth edition of the annual Agricultural Outlook - and the second prepared jointly with the FAO - provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on projections that extend to 2015 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of mainly temperate zone agricultural commodities. These projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions, population growth, national agricultural and trade policies, production technologies, and weather conditions.  It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes. In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including the agricultural giants of India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and several least developed countries.

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Oilseeds and Oilseed Products

The world oilseed and oilseed meal markets begin the projection period after two years of falling prices. During 2003 and 2004, a combination of increased area and yield recovery resulted in a leap in production. With supplies exceeding demand and stock levels increasing, a sustained downward pressure on prices resulted. In 2005, this trend continued despite a slow-down in the growth of global production. Global stocks-to-use ratios remain above average and cause prices for oilseeds and meals to remain depressed. Vegetable oil markets showed more stability and firmer prices during the same period. After a period of steep price increases came to an end in 2003, prices stabilised at an above average level thanks to a steady expansion of global consumption and trade in 2004 and 2005. Greater diversity of supply and demand, which depends on many sources and uses, has contributed to a relative stability of vegetable oil markets.

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