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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2006

This twelfth edition of the annual Agricultural Outlook - and the second prepared jointly with the FAO - provides an assessment of agricultural market prospects based on projections that extend to 2015 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices of mainly temperate zone agricultural commodities. These projections are based on specific assumptions regarding global macroeconomic conditions, population growth, national agricultural and trade policies, production technologies, and weather conditions.  It shows how these markets are influenced by economic developments and government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence market outcomes. In addition to OECD countries, the market projections in the report cover a large number of other countries and regions including the agricultural giants of India, China, Brazil and Russia as well as Argentina, South Africa and several least developed countries.

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Cereals

International markets for wheat, coarse grains and rice were characterised by substantial production shortfalls in the face of rising demand and rapidly declining global stocks for several years until the 2003 marketing year. Followed by record harvests and rising stocks in 2004, the global supply and demand situation has been fairly balanced in 2005. World production of wheat and coarse grains have both declined slightly in 2005 from their 2004 levels, but with almost 620 mt and 970 mt, respectively, remain high in historical terms. This second good global harvest in a row resulted from increased plantings for coarse grains, but also from sustained high wheat and coarse grains yields. Due to favourable weather conditions, these declined on average for the world only moderately from their high levels of the previous year. This Outlook assumes continued growth in global crop yields of about 1% per cent per year.

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