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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2003

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2003

The ninth edition of the OECD Agricultural Outlook analyses how global and domestic forces are shaping agricultural markets over the medium term. Continuing global economic weakness, compounded by drought-induced production adjustments in some countries, and government support policies are conditioning market outcomes in the near term. The interaction of these factors, together with an expected revival of the global economy in 2004 will help shape OECD and world agricultural markets up to 2008. This book provides valuable information on market trends and medium term prospects for the main agricultural products, including sugar on this occasion. It also shows how these are influenced by government policies and highlights some of the risks and uncertainties that may influence the Agricultural Outlook. Tables provide detailed commodity projections to 2008 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices in OECD countries and selected information on other countries, including China, Argentina, the Russian Federation and Brazil.

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Meat

Throughout the Outlook period, slower growth is expected in per capita real incomes in OECD countries, relative to the pace of the late 1990s. Globally, growth in meat consumption should slow down, particularly for red meats which tend to be more responsive to changes in incomes and, moreover, are experiencing a long term decline due to changes in consumer preferences. This decline in demand has mostly been driven by health concerns and has been accelerated by the recent outbreak of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in some countries. This trend towards lower red meat consumption is expected to be exacerbated by the slowdown in income growth in OECD members relative to the 1990s. Despite relatively weak demand growth, beef, pig meat and poultry prices should exceed the very low 2002 levels by 2008…

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