OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 1999

This fifth edition of the [OECD Agricultural Outlook] is published at a time of record low prices for many agricultural commodities. What have been the major reasons for the rapid price decline? How quickly will world markets recover? What are the implications of the financial crisis gripping countries of South East Asia, Russia and Latin America for the agricultural outlook? What key issues will OECD agricultural policy makers confront over the next 5 years? This publication analyses the major forces that will shape agricultural markets for the main temperate zone products up to 2004. It is essential reading for all those involved with agricultural policies and markets. It provides the reader with valuable information on market trends and commodity projections, shows how these are influenced by government policies, and highlights potential pitfalls that may influence the outlook. Many agricultural product prices are currently at historical lows due to a concurrence of large supplies and weak demand, with limited prospects of improvement until the turn of the century. Beyond this period, economic recovery in the crisis affected economies and supply adjustment in OECD countries should stimulate trade and result in generally higher prices for cereals, oilseeds, meat and dairy products into the new millennium. Continuing reform of agricultural and trade policies would strengthen these trends. A slowdown or reversal of policy reform, on the other hand, would make for a slower and less efficient recovery of agricultural commodity markets. But policies will also be shaped by a number of new issues which are emerging in such areas as food safety, animal welfare, farming methods, waste disposal and the environment. Policy responses by governments to these issues could have a significant impact on the longer term outlook. Tables provide detailed commodity projections to 2004 for production, consumption, trade, stocks and prices in OECD countries and selected information on other countries, including China, Argentina and the NIS. To access the complete database and selected results of scenarios discussed in the publication, please consult the OECD Agricultural Commodities Outlook Database. This database, available on CD-ROM and diskette, contains all market, economic and policy variables used in the outlook, with most series going back to 1970.

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