1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. Projections suggest that, following a business-as-usual path, SDG 2 on Zero Hunger would not be achieved by 2030 and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture would continue to increase. To achieve the Zero Hunger target while reducing direct GHG by 6%, overall agricultural productivity would need to increase by 28% over the next decade. Comprehensive action to boost agricultural investment and innovation, and to enable technology transfer are urgently required in order to put the agricultural sector on the necessary sustainable growth trajectory. Additional efforts to reduce food loss and waste, and to limit excess calorie and protein intakes would also be necessary. This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends driving the global agri-food sector, assuming no major changes to weather conditions or policies.

More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.

English Also available in: French, Chinese, Spanish

From Chapter: Statistical Annex

Table C.10 - Economic assumptions

English Also available in: French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 - © OECD 2022

‌C.10Economic assumptions
C.10Economic assumptions
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2019-21est
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
REAL GDP 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.1
 
4.2
 
2.5
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Canada
%
0.5
 
3.9
 
2.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
Chile
%
2.1
 
1.5
 
0.5
 
1.7
 
2.2
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
European Union
%
0.1
 
2.8
 
2.3
 
1.8
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
Japan
%
-0.9
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Korea
%
1.8
 
2.5
 
2.9
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Mexico
%
-0.9
 
2.0
 
2.5
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
New Zealand
%
2.2
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
1.9
 
1.7
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Norway
%
1.4
 
4.0
 
2.6
 
2.2
 
1.6
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Switzerland
%
0.6
 
2.2
 
1.4
 
1.8
 
1.2
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Türkiye
%
3.9
 
2.7
 
3.0
 
3.7
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
2.8
 
2.6
 
United Kingdom
%
-0.4
 
3.7
 
1.2
 
1.4
 
2.2
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
United States
%
1.5
 
3.7
 
2.3
 
1.4
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
Brazil
%
0.7
 
0.8
 
1.4
 
2.2
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
China
%
5.5
 
4.4
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
5.0
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
Egypt
%
4.2
 
5.9
 
5.0
 
5.5
 
5.8
 
5.8
 
5.9
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
India
%
2.1
 
8.2
 
6.9
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
6.5
 
6.2
 
5.8
 
5.5
 
5.2
 
4.9
 
Indonesia
%
2.0
 
5.4
 
6.0
 
5.8
 
5.4
 
5.3
 
5.2
 
4.9
 
4.7
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
Iran
%
-0.3
 
3.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
0.8
 
5.6
 
5.5
 
4.9
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
3.9
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
Pakistan
%
1.9
 
4.0
 
4.2
 
4.6
 
4.8
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
Russia
%
1.1
 
-8.5
 
-2.3
 
1.5
 
1.0
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
Saudi Arabia
%
-0.3
 
7.6
 
3.6
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
South Africa
%
-0.4
 
1.9
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Ukraine
%
0.9
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.8
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
OECD 2,3
%
0.8
 
3.2
 
2.3
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
PCE DEFLATOR 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.4
 
3.9
 
2.7
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Canada
%
1.6
 
5.6
 
2.4
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Chile
%
3.2
 
7.5
 
4.5
 
3.3
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
European Union
%
1.3
 
7.7
 
2.9
 
2.3
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Japan
%
0.1
 
1.0
 
0.8
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Korea
%
1.3
 
4.0
 
2.4
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Mexico
%
4.6
 
6.8
 
3.9
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
New Zealand
%
2.1
 
5.9
 
3.5
 
2.4
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
Norway
%
2.2
 
3.5
 
1.8
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Switzerland
%
-0.1
 
2.5
 
1.6
 
1.2
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Türkiye
%
14.8
 
60.5
 
37.2
 
20.4
 
16.0
 
15.1
 
15.0
 
17.1
 
13.4
 
9.7
 
6.1
 
United Kingdom
%
1.9
 
7.4
 
5.3
 
2.6
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
United States
%
2.2
 
7.7
 
2.9
 
2.3
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Brazil
%
5.3
 
8.2
 
5.1
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
China
%
2.0
 
2.1
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Egypt
%
8.0
 
7.5
 
11.0
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
7.4
 
6.9
 
6.4
 
6.1
 
5.7
 
India
%
5.5
 
6.1
 
4.8
 
4.3
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
Indonesia
%
2.1
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
Iran
%
2.2
 
6.3
 
3.0
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
0.7
 
3.0
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
Pakistan
%
8.8
 
11.2
 
10.5
 
7.4
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.1
 
5.8
 
5.4
 
5.2
 
Russia
%
4.8
 
21.3
 
14.3
 
9.0
 
6.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
Saudi Arabia
%
1.5
 
2.5
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
South Africa
%
3.9
 
5.7
 
4.6
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
Ukraine
%
6.7
 
7.1
 
5.8
 
5.2
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.7
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
OECD 2,3
%
2.8
 
11.9
 
7.7
 
5.5
 
4.8
 
4.9
 
5.2
 
6.1
 
5.4
 
4.5
 
3.4
 
GDP DEFLATOR 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
3.2
 
5.3
 
0.1
 
1.9
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Canada
%
3.3
 
8.0
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Chile
%
6.2
 
5.9
 
4.9
 
3.1
 
2.8
 
2.6
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
European Union
%
1.7
 
6.3
 
3.0
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Japan
%
0.3
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
Korea
%
0.8
 
2.7
 
2.9
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Mexico
%
4.4
 
4.6
 
3.6
 
3.8
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
New Zealand
%
2.7
 
4.9
 
4.1
 
3.4
 
3.0
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
Norway
%
3.7
 
11.3
 
-2.1
 
-0.8
 
-0.2
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Switzerland
%
0.2
 
2.0
 
1.3
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Türkiye
%
16.4
 
54.3
 
39.9
 
21.5
 
15.6
 
14.4
 
15.5
 
17.6
 
13.8
 
10.0
 
6.2
 
United Kingdom
%
2.9
 
4.8
 
5.1
 
2.6
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
United States
%
2.3
 
6.3
 
3.0
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Brazil
%
7.0
 
8.2
 
5.4
 
3.8
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
China
%
1.9
 
3.5
 
3.3
 
2.4
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Egypt
%
7.8
 
8.3
 
11.2
 
7.7
 
7.5
 
7.5
 
7.6
 
7.0
 
6.6
 
6.2
 
5.8
 
India
%
4.0
 
4.9
 
5.5
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
Indonesia
%
1.5
 
3.6
 
3.3
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
Iran
%
2.2
 
6.3
 
3.0
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
0.7
 
4.0
 
2.5
 
2.2
 
2.7
 
2.5
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Pakistan
%
9.3
 
11.5
 
11.3
 
7.3
 
5.7
 
6.4
 
6.4
 
6.0
 
5.7
 
5.4
 
5.1
 
Russia
%
5.3
 
25.1
 
8.9
 
6.9
 
5.5
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
Saudi Arabia
%
3.2
 
16.0
 
-5.2
 
-2.2
 
-0.9
 
-0.1
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
South Africa
%
5.3
 
3.8
 
3.2
 
4.3
 
4.5
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
Ukraine
%
11.0
 
8.2
 
6.7
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
OECD 3
%
3.3
 
10.3
 
7.9
 
5.7
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
5.3
 
6.2
 
5.5
 
4.6
 
3.4
 
WORLD INPUT PRICES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Brent crude oil 4
USD/barrel
58.9
 
100.0
 
84.8
 
85.4
 
85.9
 
86.4
 
87.0
 
87.5
 
88.1
 
88.6
 
89.2
 
Fertiliser 5
USD/t
95.6
 
138.4
 
96.2
 
98.5
 
98.7
 
97.7
 
95.2
 
94.9
 
95.2
 
95.7
 
96.3
 
EXCHANGE RATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
AUD/USD
1.41
 
1.36
 
1.33
 
1.32
 
1.33
 
1.33
 
1.34
 
1.34
 
1.35
 
1.35
 
1.36
 
Canada
CAD/USD
1.31
 
1.26
 
1.23
 
1.21
 
1.20
 
1.20
 
1.19
 
1.18
 
1.17
 
1.17
 
1.16
 
Chile
CLP/USD
740.82
 
779.70
 
743.90
 
722.19
 
708.86
 
701.30
 
696.65
 
691.99
 
687.33
 
682.68
 
678.02
 
European Union
EUR/USD
0.87
 
0.88
 
0.87
 
0.86
 
0.85
 
0.85
 
0.84
 
0.83
 
0.83
 
0.82
 
0.81
 
Japan
JPY/USD
108.50
 
113.32
 
108.11
 
104.75
 
100.59
 
97.41
 
94.33
 
91.35
 
88.46
 
85.66
 
82.95
 
Korea
KRW/USD
1 163.33
 
1 200.69
 
1 195.68
 
1 190.22
 
1 186.81
 
1 185.39
 
1 183.97
 
1 182.56
 
1 181.14
 
1 179.73
 
1 178.32
 
Mexico
MXN/USD
20.25
 
21.04
 
21.41
 
21.61
 
21.83
 
22.06
 
22.29
 
22.52
 
22.75
 
22.98
 
23.22
 
New Zealand
NZD/USD
1.49
 
1.46
 
1.45
 
1.45
 
1.46
 
1.47
 
1.48
 
1.48
 
1.49
 
1.50
 
1.51
 
Brazil
BRL/USD
4.83
 
5.16
 
5.10
 
5.04
 
5.04
 
5.06
 
5.07
 
5.09
 
5.10
 
5.11
 
5.13
 
China
CNY/USD
6.76
 
6.11
 
6.04
 
6.02
 
6.01
 
6.00
 
6.00
 
5.99
 
5.99
 
5.98
 
5.97
 
Egypt
EGP/USD
16.49
 
16.74
 
18.92
 
19.79
 
20.53
 
21.40
 
22.34
 
23.29
 
24.23
 
25.17
 
26.11
 
India
INR/USD
73.79
 
79.91
 
82.76
 
85.29
 
87.70
 
90.10
 
92.58
 
95.07
 
97.56
 
100.05
 
102.54
 
Indonesia
'000 IDR/USD
14.34
 
14.37
 
14.39
 
14.56
 
14.73
 
14.89
 
15.06
 
15.23
 
15.40
 
15.56
 
15.73
 
Malaysia
MYR/USD
4.14
 
3.79
 
3.73
 
3.72
 
3.72
 
3.72
 
3.73
 
3.73
 
3.73
 
3.74
 
3.74
 
Pakistan
PKR/USD
119.68
 
134.35
 
145.19
 
152.07
 
157.45
 
164.33
 
171.49
 
178.30
 
184.79
 
190.95
 
196.81
 
Russia
RUB/USD
70.13
 
81.50
 
92.62
 
100.23
 
105.29
 
108.17
 
111.14
 
114.19
 
117.32
 
120.53
 
123.84
 
Saudi Arabia
SAR/USD
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
South Africa
ZAR/USD
15.24
 
15.36
 
15.31
 
15.49
 
15.78
 
16.14
 
16.84
 
17.54
 
18.24
 
18.94
 
19.64
 
Ukraine
UAH/USD
26.78
 
27.41
 
27.66
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
United Kingdom
GBP/USD
0.76
 
0.74
 
0.73
 
0.71
 
0.70
 
0.70
 
0.69
 
0.68
 
0.67
 
0.67
 
0.66
 
C.10Economic assumptions(cont.)
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
‌2021est‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
‌2028‌
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
POPULATION 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
Canada
%
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Chile
%
0.5
 
0.2
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
0.0
 
0.1
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
European Union
%
0.1
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Japan
%
-0.3
 
-0.4
 
-0.4
 
-0.4
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
Korea
%
0.1
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
Mexico
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
New Zealand
%
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
Norway
%
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
Switzerland
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Türkiye
%
0.8
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
United Kingdom
%
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
United States
%
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Argentina
%
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Brazil
%
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
China
%
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Egypt
%
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
India
%
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Indonesia
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
Iran
%
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
Malaysia
%
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
Pakistan
%
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
Russia
%
0.0
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
Saudi Arabia
%
1.5
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
South Africa
%
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
Ukraine
%
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
OECD 3
%
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
World
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2019-21est
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
PER CAPITA GDP in constant 2010 US dollars 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
-0.1
 
3.0
 
1.4
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
Canada
%
-0.4
 
3.1
 
1.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
Chile
%
1.2
 
1.3
 
0.5
 
1.7
 
2.2
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.8
 
European Union
%
-0.1
 
2.8
 
2.3
 
1.8
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
Japan
%
-0.6
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Korea
%
1.7
 
2.5
 
2.9
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Mexico
%
-1.9
 
1.0
 
1.5
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
New Zealand
%
1.3
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.2
 
0.9
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Norway
%
0.6
 
3.1
 
1.7
 
1.4
 
0.8
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Switzerland
%
-0.2
 
1.5
 
0.8
 
1.2
 
0.6
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Türkiye
%
2.8
 
2.1
 
2.6
 
3.2
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.4
 
2.2
 
2.0
 
United Kingdom
%
-0.9
 
3.3
 
0.8
 
1.1
 
1.9
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
United States
%
0.9
 
3.1
 
1.7
 
0.9
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Brazil
%
0.0
 
0.2
 
0.8
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.7
 
China
%
5.1
 
4.1
 
4.8
 
4.9
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
Egypt
%
2.2
 
4.0
 
3.2
 
3.7
 
4.0
 
4.1
 
4.2
 
3.9
 
3.7
 
3.4
 
3.2
 
India
%
1.1
 
7.1
 
5.9
 
6.0
 
6.1
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.7
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
Indonesia
%
1.0
 
4.4
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
4.1
 
3.9
 
3.7
 
3.5
 
Iran
%
-1.6
 
1.9
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
Malaysia
%
-0.5
 
4.3
 
4.3
 
3.7
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
Pakistan
%
-0.1
 
2.0
 
2.3
 
2.7
 
3.0
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
2.9
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
Russia
%
1.1
 
-8.5
 
-2.2
 
1.7
 
1.2
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Saudi Arabia
%
-1.9
 
6.1
 
2.3
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
South Africa
%
-1.7
 
0.7
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
Ukraine
%
1.5
 
4.3
 
4.1
 
4.5
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
OECD 3
%
0.3
 
2.9
 
1.9
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Note: For OECD member countries, as well as Brazil, China and Russia, historical data for real GDP, private consumption expenditure deflator and GDP deflator were obtained from the OECD Economic Outlook No. 110, December 2021. For other economies, historical macroeconomic data were obtained from the IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2021. Assumptions for the projection period draw on the historical update of the OECD Economics Department, projections of the IMF, and for population, projections from the United Nations World Population Prospects Database, 2019 Revision (medium variant). Data for the European Union are euro area aggregates except for population. The price index used is the private consumption expenditure deflator. Average 2019-21est and 2021est: Data for 2021 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Annual per cent change.
2.
Annual weighted average real GDP and CPI growth rates in OECD countries are based on weights using purchasing power parities (PPPs).
3.
Excludes Iceland and Costa Rica but includes all EU member countries.
4.
Short-term update for crude oil price from the OECD Economic Outlook N°110 (December 2021). For 2021, the annual average daily spot price is used and 2022 is based on an estimates of the current situation. The oil prices follow the growth rate from the World bank crude oil average price during the projection period.
5.
World Bank. Data for 2021 are estimated, projections by OECD and FAO Secretariats.
Source: OECD/FAO (2022), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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