1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 is a collaborative effort of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with input from Member governments and international commodity organisations. It provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity, fish and biofuel markets at national, regional and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning.

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 presents the trends driving food and agricultural markets over the coming decade. While progress is expected on many important fronts, in order to realize the 2030 Agenda and achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs), concerted actions and additional improvements will be needed by the agricultural sector.

More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.

English Also available in: Chinese, Spanish, French

From Chapter: Statistical Annex

Table C.10 - Economic assumptions

English Also available in: French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 - © OECD 2021

‌C.10Economic assumptions
C.10Economic assumptions
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2018-20est
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
REAL GDP 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
0.3
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Canada
%
-0.6
 
3.5
 
2.0
 
2.4
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
Chile
%
-0.3
 
4.5
 
3.2
 
2.9
 
2.7
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
European Union
%
-1.5
 
4.2
 
2.9
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.2
 
Japan
%
-1.4
 
2.3
 
1.5
 
1.2
 
1.0
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
Korea
%
1.3
 
2.8
 
3.4
 
2.9
 
2.6
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Mexico
%
-2.4
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
New Zealand
%
0.2
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Norway
%
0.3
 
3.2
 
1.5
 
2.3
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Switzerland
%
-0.2
 
2.2
 
3.4
 
1.4
 
1.9
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Turkey
%
-0.4
 
5.0
 
4.0
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
United Kingdom
%
-2.9
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
1.9
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
United States
%
0.5
 
3.2
 
3.5
 
2.3
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Brazil
%
-1.2
 
2.6
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
China
%
4.9
 
8.0
 
4.9
 
5.7
 
5.6
 
5.5
 
5.5
 
5.5
 
5.5
 
5.5
 
5.5
 
Egypt
%
4.8
 
2.8
 
5.0
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
India
%
0.0
 
8.8
 
8.0
 
7.6
 
7.4
 
7.2
 
6.7
 
6.3
 
5.9
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
Indonesia
%
2.9
 
6.1
 
5.3
 
5.2
 
5.1
 
5.1
 
4.8
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
Iran
%
-5.6
 
3.2
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.1
 
1.2
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
Malaysia
%
1.0
 
7.8
 
6.0
 
5.7
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
Pakistan
%
2.4
 
1.0
 
4.0
 
4.5
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
Russia
%
-0.2
 
2.8
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
Saudi Arabia
%
-0.9
 
3.1
 
3.4
 
2.5
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
South Africa
%
-2.4
 
3.0
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
2.1
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
Ukraine
%
-0.2
 
3.0
 
3.2
 
3.4
 
3.8
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
OECD 4,5
%
-0.6
 
3.6
 
3.1
 
2.1
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
PCE DEFLATOR 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.5
 
1.2
 
1.4
 
1.9
 
2.2
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Canada
%
1.4
 
0.4
 
0.9
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Chile
%
2.5
 
2.7
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
European Union
%
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
Japan
%
0.4
 
0.2
 
0.4
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Korea
%
0.8
 
0.7
 
1.1
 
1.3
 
1.5
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Mexico
%
3.7
 
3.4
 
2.9
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
New Zealand
%
1.6
 
1.2
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Norway
%
2.1
 
1.6
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Switzerland
%
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.6
 
0.7
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Turkey
%
14.5
 
11.9
 
11.4
 
11.0
 
11.0
 
11.0
 
9.9
 
9.0
 
8.3
 
7.6
 
7.1
 
United Kingdom
%
1.6
 
0.7
 
1.5
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
United States
%
1.6
 
1.2
 
1.4
 
2.1
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Brazil
%
2.6
 
1.9
 
2.9
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
China
%
2.6
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
Egypt
%
13.5
 
6.2
 
7.9
 
7.7
 
7.7
 
7.4
 
6.9
 
6.4
 
6.0
 
5.7
 
5.4
 
India
%
4.4
 
3.7
 
3.8
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
Indonesia
%
2.7
 
1.6
 
2.5
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
Iran
%
1.9
 
2.2
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
0.2
 
2.4
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
Pakistan
%
7.1
 
8.8
 
7.3
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.1
 
5.7
 
5.4
 
5.2
 
4.9
 
Russia
%
3.5
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.8
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
Saudi Arabia
%
1.3
 
3.7
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
South Africa
%
4.0
 
3.9
 
4.3
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
Ukraine
%
7.3
 
6.0
 
5.7
 
5.2
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
OECD 4,5
%
2.3
 
2.1
 
2.3
 
2.7
 
2.9
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
GDP DEFLATOR 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.9
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Canada
%
1.2
 
0.4
 
1.0
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Chile
%
3.5
 
3.9
 
2.6
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
European Union
%
1.6
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
Japan
%
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.6
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
Korea
%
0.3
 
1.1
 
0.6
 
1.4
 
1.7
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Mexico
%
3.6
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
New Zealand
%
2.0
 
1.1
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Norway
%
0.9
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
Switzerland
%
0.1
 
0.3
 
0.6
 
0.4
 
0.6
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Turkey
%
13.3
 
5.9
 
11.4
 
13.0
 
10.4
 
10.6
 
9.6
 
8.7
 
8.0
 
7.4
 
6.9
 
United Kingdom
%
3.4
 
-2.9
 
1.0
 
2.0
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
United States
%
1.8
 
1.1
 
1.5
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Brazil
%
3.9
 
2.0
 
2.9
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
3.9
 
China
%
2.0
 
1.6
 
2.0
 
2.2
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Egypt
%
13.6
 
6.2
 
8.1
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.8
 
7.2
 
6.7
 
6.3
 
5.9
 
5.6
 
India
%
4.0
 
3.0
 
3.7
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.8
 
3.6
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
Indonesia
%
2.5
 
1.6
 
2.5
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
Iran
%
1.9
 
2.2
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
0.0
 
2.5
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.2
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
Pakistan
%
6.9
 
9.4
 
8.5
 
7.2
 
6.2
 
6.2
 
5.9
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
Russia
%
3.8
 
3.4
 
3.5
 
3.8
 
4.0
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
Saudi Arabia
%
0.9
 
4.8
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
South Africa
%
3.8
 
3.9
 
4.3
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
Ukraine
%
9.5
 
5.5
 
5.3
 
5.2
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
OECD 5
%
2.5
 
1.4
 
2.2
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
WORLD INPUT PRICES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Brent crude oil 1
USD/barrel
59.5
 
46.5
 
52.9
 
55.1
 
57.5
 
59.9
 
62.8
 
65.6
 
68.4
 
71.2
 
74.0
 
Fertiliser 2
USD/t
252.0
 
228.3
 
246.5
 
253.9
 
260.2
 
265.3
 
269.1
 
274.1
 
280.8
 
287.9
 
294.7
 
EXCHANGE RATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
AUD/USD
1.41
 
1.42
 
1.42
 
1.42
 
1.42
 
1.43
 
1.43
 
1.44
 
1.45
 
1.45
 
1.46
 
Canada
CAD/USD
1.32
 
1.31
 
1.31
 
1.30
 
1.28
 
1.26
 
1.25
 
1.23
 
1.22
 
1.20
 
1.18
 
Chile
CLP/USD
715.32
 
762.24
 
743.03
 
731.97
 
725.72
 
722.14
 
718.57
 
714.99
 
711.42
 
707.84
 
704.27
 
European Union
EUR/USD
0.87
 
0.85
 
0.85
 
0.85
 
0.85
 
0.85
 
0.85
 
0.84
 
0.84
 
0.84
 
0.84
 
Japan
JPY/USD
108.79
 
104.84
 
104.84
 
101.09
 
98.59
 
96.84
 
95.11
 
93.42
 
91.75
 
90.12
 
88.51
 
Korea
KRW/USD
1 150.17
 
1 134.60
 
1 134.60
 
1 127.70
 
1 123.02
 
1 123.94
 
1 124.86
 
1 125.79
 
1 126.71
 
1 127.63
 
1 128.56
 
Mexico
MXN/USD
19.99
 
21.09
 
21.09
 
21.27
 
21.44
 
21.60
 
21.77
 
21.93
 
22.10
 
22.27
 
22.44
 
New Zealand
NZD/USD
1.50
 
1.49
 
1.49
 
1.47
 
1.46
 
1.44
 
1.43
 
1.42
 
1.40
 
1.39
 
1.38
 
Brazil
BRL/USD
4.27
 
5.69
 
5.69
 
5.67
 
5.62
 
5.64
 
5.66
 
5.68
 
5.70
 
5.72
 
5.74
 
China
CNY/USD
6.82
 
6.68
 
6.68
 
6.67
 
6.65
 
6.64
 
6.63
 
6.62
 
6.61
 
6.59
 
6.58
 
Egypt
EGP/USD
17.14
 
16.95
 
18.29
 
19.48
 
20.76
 
22.01
 
23.26
 
24.51
 
25.76
 
27.01
 
28.26
 
India
INR/USD
71.44
 
75.32
 
77.24
 
79.25
 
81.37
 
83.62
 
85.87
 
88.13
 
90.38
 
92.63
 
94.89
 
Indonesia
'000 IDR/USD
14.33
 
14.71
 
14.80
 
14.97
 
15.15
 
15.33
 
15.51
 
15.69
 
15.88
 
16.06
 
16.24
 
Malaysia
MYR/USD
4.12
 
4.09
 
4.07
 
4.04
 
4.04
 
4.04
 
4.04
 
4.05
 
4.05
 
4.05
 
4.06
 
Pakistan
PKR/USD
111.93
 
128.88
 
137.35
 
144.68
 
150.77
 
157.11
 
163.15
 
168.90
 
174.37
 
179.56
 
184.50
 
Russia
RUB/USD
66.82
 
79.23
 
79.23
 
80.38
 
81.75
 
83.17
 
84.60
 
86.07
 
87.56
 
89.07
 
90.61
 
Saudi Arabia
SAR/USD
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
South Africa
ZAR/USD
14.93
 
16.30
 
15.80
 
16.00
 
16.11
 
16.30
 
16.49
 
16.68
 
16.87
 
17.06
 
17.25
 
Ukraine
UAH/USD
26.70
 
28.12
 
27.96
 
28.10
 
28.10
 
28.10
 
28.10
 
28.10
 
28.10
 
28.10
 
28.10
 
United Kingdom
GBP/USD
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
0.77
 
C.10Economic assumptions(cont.)
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
‌2020est‌
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
‌2028‌
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
POPULATION 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
Canada
%
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Chile
%
0.9
 
0.5
 
0.2
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
0.0
 
0.1
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
European Union
%
0.2
 
0.1
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
Japan
%
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.4
 
-0.4
 
-0.4
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.6
 
Korea
%
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
Mexico
%
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
New Zealand
%
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
Norway
%
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
Switzerland
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Turkey
%
1.1
 
0.8
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
United Kingdom
%
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
United States
%
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Argentina
%
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
Brazil
%
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
China
%
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.0
 
Egypt
%
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
India
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
Indonesia
%
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
Iran
%
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
Malaysia
%
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
Pakistan
%
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
Russia
%
0.0
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
Saudi Arabia
%
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
South Africa
%
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
Ukraine
%
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
OECD 5
%
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
World
%
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2018-20est
‌2021‌
‌2022‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
PER CAPITA GDP in constant 2010 US dollars 3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
-1.0
 
2.1
 
1.9
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
Canada
%
-1.5
 
2.6
 
1.2
 
1.6
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Chile
%
-1.5
 
4.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.7
 
2.5
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
European Union
%
-1.7
 
4.1
 
2.9
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Japan
%
-1.2
 
2.7
 
1.9
 
1.6
 
1.4
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Korea
%
1.2
 
2.8
 
3.3
 
2.9
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.6
 
Mexico
%
-3.5
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
New Zealand
%
-0.6
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
Norway
%
-0.5
 
2.4
 
0.7
 
1.5
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Switzerland
%
-1.0
 
1.4
 
2.7
 
0.8
 
1.3
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
Turkey
%
-1.7
 
4.1
 
3.4
 
3.0
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
United Kingdom
%
-3.5
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
1.5
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
United States
%
-0.1
 
2.6
 
2.9
 
1.7
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Brazil
%
-2.0
 
1.9
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
China
%
4.4
 
7.7
 
4.6
 
5.5
 
5.4
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.4
 
5.5
 
Egypt
%
2.8
 
0.9
 
3.1
 
3.5
 
3.5
 
3.8
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.2
 
3.0
 
2.8
 
India
%
-1.0
 
7.8
 
7.0
 
6.6
 
6.5
 
6.3
 
5.8
 
5.4
 
5.1
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
Indonesia
%
1.8
 
5.0
 
4.2
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
4.1
 
3.9
 
3.7
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
3.2
 
Iran
%
-6.9
 
1.9
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.1
 
0.1
 
0.7
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
Malaysia
%
-0.3
 
6.5
 
4.7
 
4.4
 
4.1
 
3.8
 
3.6
 
3.5
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
Pakistan
%
0.3
 
-0.9
 
2.1
 
2.6
 
3.1
 
3.2
 
3.0
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
Russia
%
-0.3
 
2.9
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Saudi Arabia
%
-2.5
 
1.6
 
2.0
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
South Africa
%
-3.6
 
1.7
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
1.0
 
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Ukraine
%
0.4
 
3.6
 
3.9
 
4.1
 
4.5
 
4.7
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
OECD 5
%
-1.0
 
3.1
 
2.7
 
1.6
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Note: For OECD member countries, as well as Brazil, China and Russia, historical data for real GDP, private consumption expenditure deflator and GDP deflator were obtained from the OECD Economic Outlook No. 108, December 2020. For other economies, historical macroeconomic data were obtained from the IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2020. Assumptions for the projection period draw on the recent medium term update of the OECD Economics Department, projections of the IMF, and for population, projections from the United Nations World Population Prospects Database, 2019 Revision (medium variant). Data for the European Union are euro area aggregates except for population. The price index used is the private consumption expenditure deflator. Average 2018-20est and 2020est: Data for 2020 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Short-term update for crude oil price from the OECD Economic Outlook N°108 (December 2020). For 2020, the annual average daily spot price is used and oil prices follow the growth rate from the World bank crude oil average price during the projection period.
2.
World Bank. Data for 2020 are estimated, projections by OECD and FAO Secretariats.
3.
Annual per cent change.
4.
Annual weighted average real GDP and CPI growth rates in OECD countries are based on weights using purchasing power parities (PPPs).
5.
Excludes Iceland and Costa Rica but includes all EU member countries.
Source: OECD/FAO (2021), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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