1887

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032

image of OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 provides a consensus assessment of the ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels, and serves as a reference for forward-looking policy analysis and planning. Recent surges in agricultural input prices experienced over the last two years have raised concerns about global food security. This year’s Outlook demonstrates that rising fertiliser costs can lead to higher food prices. A new feature of the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model allows the impact of changing costs of the main mineral fertilisers to be analysed separately from costs of other production inputs. Based on this new feature, a scenario analysis estimates that for each 1% increase in fertiliser prices, agricultural commodity prices would increase by 0.2%. Global food consumption – the main use of agricultural commodities – is projected to increase by 1.3% per year over the next decade, a slower pace than the previous decade due to the foreseen slowdown in population and per capita income growth. This year’s Outlook also provides improved estimates for food consumption by incorporating for the first time calculation methods to estimate food loss and waste.

This report is a collaborative effort between the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, prepared with inputs from Member countries and international commodity organisations. It highlights fundamental economic and social trends that drive the global agri-food sector, assuming there are no major changes to weather conditions or policies.

More information can be found at www.agri-outlook.org.

English Also available in: Spanish, French, Chinese

From Chapter: Statistical Annex

Table C.10 - Economic assumptions

English Also available in: French

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-2032 - © OECD 2023

‌C.10Economic assumptions
C.10Economic assumptions
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2020-22est
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
‌2032‌
REAL GDP 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
2.2
 
1.9
 
1.6
 
2.0
 
2.2
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Canada
%
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.3
 
2.3
 
1.9
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
Chile
%
2.6
 
-1.0
 
2.0
 
2.3
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
European Union
%
0.7
 
0.8
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
Japan
%
-0.5
 
1.8
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
Korea
%
2.1
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
Mexico
%
-0.2
 
1.6
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
New Zealand
%
2.0
 
1.0
 
1.2
 
2.2
 
2.3
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Norway
%
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Switzerland
%
1.3
 
0.6
 
1.4
 
1.2
 
1.8
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Türkiye
%
6.1
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.6
 
2.7
 
2.7
 
United Kingdom
%
0.3
 
-0.4
 
0.2
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
United States
%
1.7
 
0.5
 
1.0
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
Brazil
%
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.4
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
China
%
4.5
 
4.6
 
4.1
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
Egypt
%
4.5
 
4.4
 
5.2
 
5.6
 
5.8
 
5.9
 
5.5
 
5.2
 
5.0
 
4.7
 
4.5
 
India
%
3.0
 
6.1
 
6.8
 
6.8
 
6.5
 
6.2
 
5.8
 
5.5
 
5.2
 
5.0
 
4.7
 
Indonesia
%
2.3
 
5.0
 
5.4
 
5.3
 
5.2
 
5.1
 
4.9
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
Iran
%
3.7
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
1.0
 
4.4
 
4.9
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
3.9
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
3.5
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
Pakistan
%
3.6
 
3.5
 
4.2
 
4.6
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
Russia
%
-0.6
 
-5.6
 
-0.2
 
1.0
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Saudi Arabia
%
2.2
 
3.7
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
South Africa
%
0.2
 
1.1
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Ukraine
%
1.0
 
3.4
 
3.8
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
3.2
 
OECD 2,3
%
1.4
 
1.0
 
1.4
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
PCE DEFLATOR 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
2.4
 
4.3
 
2.5
 
2.8
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Canada
%
3.0
 
3.9
 
2.4
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Chile
%
6.4
 
8.7
 
4.1
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
European Union
%
3.5
 
4.3
 
1.9
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.1
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Japan
%
0.7
 
2.0
 
1.7
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Korea
%
2.5
 
3.3
 
2.3
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Mexico
%
6.6
 
5.6
 
3.2
 
3.3
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
New Zealand
%
3.5
 
4.8
 
2.8
 
2.5
 
2.3
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
Norway
%
3.1
 
4.4
 
3.0
 
2.5
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Switzerland
%
0.6
 
2.0
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
Türkiye
%
35.0
 
51.2
 
24.2
 
17.2
 
15.4
 
15.0
 
7.0
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
5.3
 
United Kingdom
%
3.8
 
6.1
 
2.8
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
United States
%
3.8
 
3.5
 
2.6
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Brazil
%
7.3
 
4.7
 
4.5
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
China
%
1.8
 
2.2
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Egypt
%
6.2
 
12.0
 
8.0
 
7.1
 
7.0
 
7.0
 
6.5
 
6.1
 
5.8
 
5.5
 
5.2
 
India
%
6.2
 
5.1
 
4.4
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
Indonesia
%
2.7
 
5.5
 
3.2
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
Iran
%
3.8
 
3.0
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
1.5
 
2.8
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
2.3
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Pakistan
%
10.6
 
19.9
 
10.0
 
7.7
 
6.5
 
6.5
 
6.1
 
5.8
 
5.4
 
5.2
 
4.9
 
Russia
%
7.9
 
5.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
4.0
 
Saudi Arabia
%
3.1
 
2.2
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
South Africa
%
4.9
 
5.1
 
4.7
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.7
 
Ukraine
%
6.5
 
5.8
 
5.2
 
5.0
 
5.0
 
4.7
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
OECD 2,3
%
6.5
 
11.2
 
6.9
 
5.7
 
5.6
 
5.8
 
3.6
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
3.2
 
GDP DEFLATOR 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
2.9
 
1.9
 
1.2
 
2.6
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
Canada
%
3.7
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.5
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Chile
%
8.2
 
8.5
 
3.4
 
3.3
 
2.8
 
2.8
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
3.0
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
European Union
%
3.8
 
4.3
 
2.3
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
Japan
%
0.3
 
0.7
 
0.4
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
Korea
%
1.5
 
0.8
 
2.3
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
1.9
 
Mexico
%
4.6
 
3.2
 
3.7
 
3.2
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
New Zealand
%
2.9
 
2.5
 
3.6
 
3.8
 
3.4
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
3.1
 
Norway
%
5.7
 
1.3
 
0.1
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
Switzerland
%
0.7
 
1.0
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
Türkiye
%
43.9
 
51.0
 
24.9
 
17.1
 
15.1
 
14.7
 
5.5
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.9
 
4.9
 
United Kingdom
%
3.0
 
2.2
 
3.8
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
United States
%
3.0
 
2.4
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Brazil
%
7.4
 
3.6
 
4.0
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
China
%
2.2
 
1.4
 
2.2
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
2.2
 
Egypt
%
6.7
 
13.1
 
8.2
 
7.4
 
7.1
 
7.1
 
6.6
 
6.2
 
5.9
 
5.5
 
5.2
 
India
%
7.9
 
5.9
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
3.9
 
3.7
 
3.6
 
3.5
 
Indonesia
%
3.9
 
5.5
 
3.2
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
2.9
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
Iran
%
3.8
 
3.0
 
2.5
 
2.1
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
2.0
 
Malaysia
%
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.6
 
2.8
 
2.6
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
2.4
 
Pakistan
%
11.3
 
20.8
 
10.2
 
7.8
 
6.5
 
6.4
 
6.0
 
5.7
 
5.4
 
5.1
 
4.9
 
Russia
%
6.8
 
5.0
 
2.1
 
2.4
 
3.5
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
3.7
 
Saudi Arabia
%
6.3
 
-4.9
 
-0.9
 
-0.2
 
0.2
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
South Africa
%
5.6
 
3.7
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
3.9
 
3.8
 
Ukraine
%
11.0
 
6.7
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.8
 
4.5
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
OECD 3
%
7.1
 
11.2
 
7.6
 
6.1
 
5.9
 
6.1
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
3.0
 
WORLD INPUT PRICES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Brent crude oil 4
USD/barrel
70.2
 
81.7
 
83.7
 
85.4
 
87.1
 
88.8
 
90.5
 
92.3
 
94.1
 
96.0
 
97.9
 
Fertiliser 5
USD/t
129.5
 
159.6
 
105.2
 
108.5
 
109.9
 
112.1
 
114.2
 
116.7
 
119.2
 
121.6
 
123.9
 
EXCHANGE RATES
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
AUD/USD
1.41
 
1.57
 
1.57
 
1.58
 
1.58
 
1.59
 
1.60
 
1.60
 
1.61
 
1.62
 
1.62
 
Canada
CAD/USD
1.30
 
1.37
 
1.37
 
1.37
 
1.36
 
1.35
 
1.34
 
1.33
 
1.32
 
1.31
 
1.30
 
Chile
CLP/USD
801.47
 
819.78
 
837.60
 
847.30
 
856.30
 
864.44
 
872.58
 
880.72
 
888.85
 
896.99
 
905.13
 
European Union
EUR/USD
0.89
 
1.02
 
1.02
 
1.02
 
1.01
 
1.01
 
1.00
 
0.99
 
0.99
 
0.98
 
0.97
 
Japan
JPY/USD
116.47
 
147.33
 
147.33
 
141.63
 
137.01
 
133.62
 
130.32
 
127.10
 
123.97
 
120.90
 
117.92
 
Korea
KRW/USD
1 210.62
 
1 422.10
 
1 422.10
 
1 422.81
 
1 423.27
 
1 423.28
 
1 423.30
 
1 423.31
 
1 423.32
 
1 423.33
 
1 423.34
 
Mexico
MXN/USD
20.57
 
19.64
 
19.64
 
19.92
 
20.14
 
20.33
 
20.53
 
20.73
 
20.93
 
21.13
 
21.33
 
New Zealand
NZD/USD
1.52
 
1.73
 
1.73
 
1.75
 
1.76
 
1.77
 
1.78
 
1.78
 
1.79
 
1.80
 
1.80
 
Brazil
BRL/USD
5.23
 
5.13
 
5.13
 
5.14
 
5.15
 
5.15
 
5.15
 
5.14
 
5.14
 
5.14
 
5.14
 
China
CNY/USD
6.71
 
7.30
 
7.30
 
7.31
 
7.30
 
7.29
 
7.28
 
7.26
 
7.25
 
7.24
 
7.23
 
Egypt
EGP/USD
16.11
 
19.38
 
20.35
 
21.12
 
21.95
 
22.81
 
23.68
 
24.55
 
25.41
 
26.28
 
27.15
 
India
INR/USD
75.84
 
80.39
 
82.28
 
84.11
 
85.81
 
87.54
 
89.27
 
91.00
 
92.73
 
94.46
 
96.19
 
Indonesia
'000 IDR/USD
14.52
 
15.14
 
15.17
 
15.21
 
15.27
 
15.33
 
15.39
 
15.44
 
15.50
 
15.56
 
15.62
 
Malaysia
MYR/USD
4.08
 
3.88
 
3.88
 
3.88
 
3.89
 
3.90
 
3.90
 
3.91
 
3.91
 
3.92
 
3.92
 
Pakistan
PKR/USD
165.43
 
195.42
 
213.02
 
230.62
 
248.22
 
265.81
 
283.41
 
301.01
 
318.61
 
336.20
 
353.80
 
Russia
RUB/USD
71.89
 
62.28
 
62.28
 
64.06
 
65.73
 
67.37
 
69.05
 
70.76
 
72.52
 
74.33
 
76.18
 
Saudi Arabia
SAR/USD
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
3.75
 
South Africa
ZAR/USD
15.78
 
16.44
 
16.76
 
17.12
 
17.51
 
17.89
 
18.28
 
18.67
 
19.06
 
19.45
 
19.83
 
Ukraine
UAH/USD
27.31
 
27.66
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
27.80
 
United Kingdom
GBP/USD
0.78
 
0.89
 
0.89
 
0.88
 
0.87
 
0.85
 
0.83
 
0.82
 
0.80
 
0.79
 
0.77
 
C.10Economic assumptions(cont.)
  Calendar year
‌‌
‌‌
‌2022est‌
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
‌2028‌
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
‌2032‌
POPULATION 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
Canada
%
0.7
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
Chile
%
0.5
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
0.0
 
0.1
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
European Union
%
0.1
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
Japan
%
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.5
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
-0.6
 
Korea
%
0.0
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.3
 
Mexico
%
0.6
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
New Zealand
%
1.4
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
Norway
%
0.4
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
Switzerland
%
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
Türkiye
%
0.8
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
United Kingdom
%
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.3
 
0.2
 
United States
%
0.3
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Argentina
%
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
Brazil
%
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.6
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.5
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
China
%
0.1
 
0.0
 
0.0
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.1
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
-0.2
 
Egypt
%
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
India
%
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Indonesia
%
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Iran
%
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
Malaysia
%
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
Pakistan
%
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
Russia
%
-0.4
 
-0.2
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
-0.3
 
Saudi Arabia
%
1.5
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
South Africa
%
1.2
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
Ukraine
%
-0.6
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
-0.7
 
OECD 3
%
0.2
 
0.4
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
0.2
 
World
%
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
0.8
 
‌‌
‌‌
Average
2020-22est
‌2023‌
‌2024‌
‌2025‌
‌2026‌
‌2027‌
2028
‌2029‌
‌2030‌
‌2031‌
‌2032‌
PER CAPITA GDP in constant 2010 US dollars 1
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Australia
%
1.2
 
0.9
 
0.7
 
1.0
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
Canada
%
0.0
 
0.2
 
0.5
 
1.5
 
1.1
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
Chile
%
2.0
 
-0.9
 
2.0
 
2.3
 
2.3
 
2.4
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.5
 
European Union
%
0.7
 
0.5
 
2.2
 
2.0
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
Japan
%
0.0
 
2.4
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Korea
%
2.1
 
1.8
 
2.0
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
Mexico
%
-0.9
 
0.9
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
New Zealand
%
0.5
 
0.2
 
0.4
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
1.8
 
Norway
%
1.3
 
1.1
 
0.8
 
0.9
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.6
 
0.7
 
Switzerland
%
0.6
 
0.0
 
0.8
 
0.6
 
1.2
 
0.6
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.7
 
0.8
 
Türkiye
%
5.2
 
2.6
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
2.5
 
1.8
 
1.9
 
2.0
 
2.1
 
2.1
 
United Kingdom
%
-0.1
 
-0.7
 
-0.1
 
2.0
 
1.9
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
United States
%
1.3
 
0.0
 
0.5
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
Brazil
%
0.6
 
0.7
 
0.8
 
1.5
 
1.4
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.5
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
China
%
4.4
 
4.6
 
4.2
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
4.8
 
Egypt
%
2.5
 
2.6
 
3.4
 
3.8
 
4.1
 
4.2
 
3.9
 
3.6
 
3.4
 
3.2
 
3.0
 
India
%
2.0
 
5.1
 
5.9
 
5.8
 
5.6
 
5.3
 
5.0
 
4.7
 
4.4
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
Indonesia
%
1.3
 
4.0
 
4.4
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.0
 
3.8
 
3.6
 
3.5
 
3.3
 
Iran
%
2.4
 
0.9
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.1
 
1.1
 
1.2
 
1.2
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Malaysia
%
-0.3
 
3.1
 
3.7
 
3.3
 
3.3
 
2.9
 
2.8
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
2.4
 
Pakistan
%
1.6
 
1.6
 
2.3
 
2.8
 
3.2
 
3.2
 
3.1
 
2.9
 
2.7
 
2.6
 
2.5
 
Russia
%
-0.4
 
-5.4
 
0.1
 
1.3
 
1.1
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
1.0
 
Saudi Arabia
%
0.7
 
2.3
 
1.6
 
1.6
 
1.7
 
1.9
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.8
 
1.7
 
1.7
 
South Africa
%
-1.0
 
0.0
 
0.1
 
0.3
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
0.4
 
Ukraine
%
1.6
 
4.1
 
4.5
 
4.7
 
4.7
 
4.6
 
4.4
 
4.3
 
4.2
 
4.1
 
4.0
 
OECD 3
%
0.9
 
0.6
 
1.0
 
1.4
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
1.3
 
Note: For OECD member countries, as well as Brazil, China and Russia, historical data for real GDP, private consumption expenditure deflator and GDP deflator were obtained from the OECD Economic Outlook No. 112, December 2022. For other economies, historical macroeconomic data were obtained from the IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2022. Assumptions for the projection period draw on the historical update of the OECD Economics Department, projections of the IMF, and for population, projections from the United Nations World Population Prospects Database, (medium variant). Data for the European Union are euro area aggregates except for population. The price index used is the private consumption expenditure deflator. Average 2020-22est and 2022est: Data for 2022 are estimated.
Disclaimer: http://oe.cd/disclaimer
1.
Annual per cent change.
2.
Annual weighted average real GDP and CPI growth rates in OECD countries are based on weights using purchasing power parities (PPPs).
3.
Excludes Iceland and Costa Rica but includes all EU member countries.
4.
Short-term update for crude oil price from the OECD Economic Outlook N°112 (December 2022). For 2022, the annual average daily spot price is used and the December 2022 average spot price is used for 2023. The oil prices are constant in real term during the projection period.
5.
World Bank. Data for 2022 are estimated, projections by OECD and FAO Secretariats.
Source: OECD/FAO (2023), “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”,OECD Agriculture statistics(database).dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-outl-data-en

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