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Alternative Futures for Global Food and Agriculture

image of Alternative Futures for Global Food and Agriculture

We face the challenges of developing a global food system that will feed a growing and more affluent population while preserving sensitive ecosystems, competing for limited natural resources, increasing agricultural productivity growth while mitigating and adapting to climate change and other threats, and contributing to rural area well-being.

This report develops three contrasting scenarios to illustrate alternative futures, based on several global economic models and extensive discussions with relevant stakeholders, and outlines policy considerations to help ensure that future needs are met in an economically, environmentally and socially sustainable manner.  The scenarios highlight the fundamental uncertainties surrounding forward-oriented decision making, and point to the crucial importance of international co-operation across multiple policy areas.

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Quantification of scenarios and set-up of policy experiments

Quantifying the scenarios, which are outlined in qualitative terms, requires the generation of data for a variety of input variables for all regions covered by the different models. For practical reasons, and to avoid input data that are too far outside the space that can be reasonably expected, the data for variables driving the model results are generated on the basis of other existing scenarios, such as those developed by the International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) or other research organisations.

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