ITF Transport Outlook 2017

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Author(s):
ITF
30 Jan 2017
Pages:
224
ISBN:
9789282108000 (PDF) ;9789282107997(print)
DOI: 
10.1787/9789282108000-en

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The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level, as well as long-term prospects for transport demand to 2050, for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air) and CO2 emissions. This edition looks at how the main policy, economic and technological changes since 2015, along with other international developments (such as the Sustainable Development Goals), are shaping the future of mobility, and presents alternative policy scenarios for long-term trends in transport demand and CO2 emissions from all transport modes, freight and passenger. A special focus on accessibility in cities also highlights the role of policies in shaping sustainable transport systems that provide equal access to all.

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  • Editorial

    For the first time, the ITF Transport Outlook assembles scenarios for future transport demand and related CO2 emissions from all sectors and modes of transport. Starting from long-term projections produced by the OECD as well as non-OECD bodies, it analyses how socio-economic changes will affect the demand for transport under different policy scenarios. Several key trends emerge from these, such as the intensifying shift in transport activity towards developing economies, with Asian countries representing an ever increasing share of total transport demand for both freight and passengers.

  • Foreword

    The 2017 Edition of the ITF Transport Outlook builds and expands on the previous editions to give a comprehensive overview of the future transport demand and related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions up to 2050. The scenarios in this Outlook are built with the International Transport Forum’s (ITF) in-house modelling tools, developed over the course of several years. Contrary to most transport-energy modelling framework, the ITF models start by analysing transport demand, estimating what are the mobility needs and the freight demand coming from the future population, economic and trade projections (). Mode choice, energy use and CO2 emissions only come at a later stage.

  • Executive summary

    The ITF Transport Outlook provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level. It also presents long-term projections for transport demand to 2050 for freight (maritime, air and surface) and passenger transport (car, rail and air) as well as related CO2 emissions, under different policy scenarios.

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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Global outlook for transport

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    • The transport sector today

      This chapter provides an overview of recent trends and near-term prospects for the transport sector at a global level. It starts by reviewing the main policy, economic and technological changes since 2015, along with other international developments that will shape the future of mobility. It outlines the impact of three current macroeconomic trends on transport: GDP growth, international trade and oil prices. The chapter then focuses on recent trends and the near-term outlook for freight (maritime, air and surface), passenger transport (car, rail and air), CO2 emissions and investment in inland infrastructure, providing the basis for the scenarios and long-term projections developed in the following chapters.

    • Transport demand and CO2 emissions to 2050

      This chapter provides an overview of the long-term prospects for transport demand. Based on projections from the International Transport Forum’s (ITF) suite of models, it presents the baseline trajectory for transport demand to 2050 and outlines its projections for CO2 emissions from the sector. The chapter starts with the baseline scenario projections for passenger transport demand, broken down by mode, for both urban and non-urban areas, between 2015 and 2050. It then focuses on the outlook for freight for the same period, looking at surface freight (rail and road), maritime and air. The chapter concludes with the projections for the CO2 emissions from transport to 2050, by sector, and a brief review of the ITF’s contribution to the Paris Agreement with its Decarbonising Transport project.

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  • Expand / Collapse Hide / Show all Abstracts Sectoral outlook

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    • International freight

      This chapter presents results from the International Transport Forum’s (ITF) International Freight Model with projections for international trade-related freight flows and CO2 emissions up to 2050. The chapter highlights uncertainties in future trade projections and discusses their implications for freight movements. It then presents alternative scenarios for future CO2 emissions from international freight. The chapter also discusses the impacts of growing transport demand on capacity needs in ports and hinterland connections. It addresses the challenges of hinterland transport and finally provides guidelines for decision makers when planning for the future of international freight.

    • International passenger aviation

      International aviation continues to expand, contributing positively to the economy, but bringing with it challenges for the environment. This chapter starts by describing the process for modelling future global passenger demand and then presents three scenarios for the evolution of this demand and the related CO2 emissions. The three scenarios correspond to different mechanisms for the evolution of the air network and combine assumptions on the rules governing the geographical expansion of the network and on future competition levels. The chapter continues by considering projections for CO2 emissions from international passenger aviation up to 2030 as well as an overview of the longer-term prospects. The final section starts with an analysis of the current level of air accessibility, finishing with a global outlook for accessibility by air to 2030.

    • Mobility in cities

      This chapter presents long-term scenarios on the development of passenger mobility in cities and the related emissions up to 2050. The results, based on the new model for mobility in cities of the International Transport Forum (ITF), comprise modal shares, mobility levels and emissions of both CO2 and local pollutants. The first section looks at the development of the modelling framework and analyses the impacts of different transport, environment and technology substitution measures on mobility. The long-term implications of the three policy scenarios in terms of accessibility are then analysed, using a new methodology to compute accessibility in cities. The chapter concludes with a case study on certain cities in Asia, applying the same policy scenarios on a subset of cities from China, India and Southeast Asia.

    • Statistical annex

      Rail freight transport 182

    • Glossary and List of acronyms

      2DS scenario: The 2DS scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA) lays out an energy system deployment pathway and an emissions trajectory consistent with at least a 50% chance of limiting the average global temperature increase to 2°C. For instance, the world average on-road fuel efficiency of passenger cars is 4.4 litres gasoline equivalent per 100 kilometres in 2050, down from 6.4 litres in the baseline.

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