ITF Transport Outlook 2015

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27 Jan 2015
9789282107782 (PDF) ;9789282107645(print)

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The ITF Transport Outlook examines the development of global transport volumes and related CO2 emissions and health impacts through to 2050. It examines factors that can affect supply and demand for transport services and focuses on scenarios illustrating potential upper and lower pathways, discussing their relevance to policy making.

This edition presents an overview of long-run scenarios for the development of global passenger and freight transport volumes, with emphasis on changes in global trade flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation. It focuses on the characteristics of mobility development in developing countries, from Latin America to Chinese and Indian cities, highlighting the importance of urban mobility policies for the achievement of national and global sustainability goals.



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  • Preface

    The 2015 ITF Transport Outlook examines the trends and forecasts the development of global transport volumes and related CO2 emissions and health impacts through to 2050. It examines factors that can affect supply and demand for transport services and focuses on scenarios illustrating potential upper and lower pathways depending on the transport and CO2 intensity of the future growth and particularly urban transport policies. The analysis highlights the consequences of rapid urbanisation outside the OECD on overall transport volumes, CO2 emissions and health impacts. The ITF Transport Outlook also assesses how the shifting global economic centre of gravity from developed economies towards emerging economies affects production and consumption patterns – and therefore also international trade-related freight transport.

  • Foreword

    The ITF Transport Outlook brings together statistics on recent trends in transport, near-term outlook and scenario analysis for the long term. It identifies the drivers of past trends and possible future developments and discusses their relevance to policy making. The ITF Transport Outlook aims to be an aid to the analysis of strategic policy issues.

  • Executive summary

    Growth in global road and rail passenger travel to 2050 ranges from 120% to 230%, depending on future fuel prices and urban transport policies. This growth is driven by non-OECD economies, where passenger volumes are projected to grow between 240% and 450%.

  • Reader's guide

    ITF Transport Outlook presents long run scenarios, up to 2050, on the development of global passenger mobility and freight volumes. The scenario outcomes are based on several models, which look at freight transport demand, differentiating between surface freight (road and rail) and passenger transport, both urban and inter-urban. In each case, the outputs are vehicle-kilometres or tonne-kilometres, and are translated into CO2 emissions by applying transport technology paths built by the International Energy Agency (IEA). In the urban case, local pollutants and health impacts are also computed, using the methodology developed by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

  • Near-term outlook for the economy, trade and transport

    This chapter reviews recent trends in economic development, trade and transport. It establishes the link between growth and transport demand based on historical data on GDP, trade, and global transport. Together with near-term economic projections, this chapter outlines the expected freight and passenger transport in the near-term. It discusses the shift of economic mass to emerging economies and provides evidence of some rebalancing of trade and transport flows. The chapter also reviews trends in car use in high-income economies and highlights rising uncertainty over future mobility choices.

  • Surface transport demand in the long run

    This chapter presents an overview of long-run scenarios to 2050 for the development of global surface (road and rail) passenger mobility and freight traffic. The transport scenarios are translated into CO2 emission scenarios by applying potential transport technology pathways. The chapter first introduces the general modelling framework developed by the International Transport Forum. It then summarises total CO2 emissions from surface transport globally. Finally, alternative development paths for both freight and passenger transport are discussed and regional implications of different scenarios for transport demand and CO2 emissions are shown up to 2050.

  • International freight and CO2 emissions to 2050

    This chapter presents results from the ITF’s international freight model with projections for international freight flows and related CO2 emissions for 25 regions and 20 product groups up to 2050. Results are also presented for alternative trade liberalisation scenarios between 2010 and 2050. The importance of domestic transport linked to international freight is highlighted. The chapter then discusses shipping emissions in ports and finally provides several policy conclusions for the supply chains of the future.

  • Urban passenger transport scenarios for Latin America, China and India

    This chapter presents long-run scenarios to 2050 for the development of urban passenger mobility and related emissions and health impacts in Latin American, Chinese and Indian cities, based on the ITF urban transport model, IEA’s MoMo model and ICCT’s health impacts methodology. The model projects levels of transport activity and modal shares under different urban policy scenarios. The chapter highlights the importance of urban agglomerations to economic development while also taking into account the challenges related to containing the negative externalities. The chapter discusses the importance of designing comprehensive urban policies in emerging economies on the basis of an empirical analysis using extensive data.

  • Statistical annex
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