ITF Transport Outlook 2013

ITF Transport Outlook 2013

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Author(s):
OECD, ITF
Publication Date :
10 Dec 2013
Pages :
160
ISBN :
9789282103937 (PDF) ; 9789282103920 (print)
DOI :
10.1787/9789282103937-en

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The ITF Transport Outlook 2013 presents and discusses global scenarios concerning the development of transport volumes through 2050. The analysis highlights the impact of alternative economic growth scenarios on passenger and freight flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation outside the OECD . Under any scenario, transport volumes grow very strongly in non-OECD regions, and curbing negative side-effects (including greenhouse gas emissions, local pollution and congestion) is a major challenge. The Outlook also discusses the challenge of establishing sustainable funding mechanisms for the transport infrastructure, emphasising the need for long run funding strategies in a context of growing global investment demand. The Outlook includes a comprehensive statistical annex.

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    Preface and Foreword

    The 2013 ITF Transport Outlook examines scenarios for the development of global transport volumes through 2050. The analysis highlights the impact of alternative scenarios for economic growth on passenger and freight flows and the consequences of rapid urbanisation outside the OECD on overall transport volumes and CO2 emissions.

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    Executive summary
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    Reader's guide
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    Transport and the macroeconomy – current situation and near term expectations

    This chapter reviews some of the recent trends in economic development, trade and transport. Based on historical data on gross domestic product, trade and global transport together with near term economic projections, the chapter discusses some of the main expectations for freight and passenger transport for the near-term future. It discusses the recent observation of a shift of economic mass to emerging economies and provides evidence of some rebalancing of trade and transport flows. The chapter also reviews trends in car use in high-income economies and highlights rising uncertainty over future mobility choices.

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    Transport demand in the long run

    This chapter presents an overview of long-run scenarios, up to 2050, on the development of global passenger transport and freight volumes. The transport scenarios are translated into CO2 emission scenarios by applying different transport technology paths. The chapter also introduces a Latin America urban transport case study that explores specific characteristics of mobility development in developing countries. The urban model analyses the impact of land use, infrastructure and fuel pricing policy on the development of urban mobility in Latin America, improving the evidence base for scenario analysis. Finally, the chapter presents regional implications of different development paths for passenger and freight transport and CO2 emissions.

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    Transport for growth

    This chapter discusses how to improve transport’s contribution to economic growth with the focus on advanced economies. It reviews evidence on the contribution that investment in transport infrastructure can make to productivity and output growth. The chapter provides evidence of current transport infrastructure spending levels. Finally, it gives policy guidance on how to strengthening appraisal for goal-oriented spending decisions, taking into account also wider economic benefits.

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    Funding and financing transport

    This chapter reviews future funding needs to maintain the performance of the transport infrastructure. The chapter then investigates what funding frameworks are needed to ensure adequate funding levels and costeffective spending decisions. It addresses the question of funding and financing mechanisms and highlights the need for committing to reliable funding flows for transport infrastructure, including private sector finance. Finally, the chapter summarises the role and scope for public-private partnerships in delivering future transport infrastructure

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    Statistical annex
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