ITF Roundtable Reports

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ITF Roundtable Reports present the proceedings of ITF roundtable meetings, dedicated to specific topics notably on economic and regulatory aspects of transport policies in ITF member countries. Roundtable Reports contain the reviewed versions of the discussion papers presented by international experts at the meeting and a summary of discussions with the main findings of the meeting.

Ex-Post Assessment of Transport Investments and Policy Interventions

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International Transport Forum

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28 Feb 2017
9789282108154 (PDF) ;9789282108147(print)

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Ex-post evaluation is important to improving the delivery of transport policy objectives. It can be used for multiple purposes at the core of which is the improvement of ex-ante assessment. A small number of jurisdictions employ ex-post evaluation systematically and leading experience is reviewed in this report.
One reason ex-post analysis is not more widely employed is a number of methodological and data challenges. Several approaches have been developed to tackle these, including advanced statistical approaches, establishment of transport observatories to retain data that would otherwise be lost and a case study approach to compare similar locations subject to different investment and policy treatments.
This report examines examples of best practice, discussing the potential of different approaches and how they can be used to complement each other.

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  • Executive summary

    This publication examines the role that ex-post project evaluation can play in enhancing decisionmaking for future transport infrastructure investments. It presents the results of a Roundtable held in Paris in 2014, which brought together more than 20 experts from 12 countries to discuss the issues surrounding ex-post project assessment and review the experience with different approaches in a number of countries, with case studies from France, the United Kingdom, the United States and Spain at the core.

  • Summary of discussions

    This summary of discussions begins by outlining the meaning of ex-post vs. ex-ante evaluation and examining the accuracy of the conventional ex-ante methodology. It then describes two basic systems/approaches to data collection and evaluation. Next it presents the challenges in expanding the conventional investment appraisal to broader development effects and the statistical tools available to evaluate the broader development effects in ex-post evaluation. Lastly, the need to expand the concept of ex-post evaluation to monitoring is discussed and concluding remarks are given.

  • Permanent observatories as tools for ex-post assessment: The French case study

    In France, the obligation to conduct an ex-post assessment is relatively recent (1982) but it has, in fact, revealed some methodological problems that flow from the retrospective nature of the exercise.

  • The National Audit Office's value-for-money assessment of transport investments

    The United Kingdom National Audit Office (NAO) scrutinises public spending on behalf of Parliament, helping it to hold government departments to account and helping public bodies improve performance and delivery. We publish around 60 value-for-money studies each year which look at how government projects, programmes and initiatives have been implemented and make recommendations on how services can be improved.

  • TPICS, TIGER and United States experience: A focus on case-based ex-post economic impact assessment

    This chapter presents the results of research recently conducted by the authors on ex-post analysis focused on the long-term economic impacts of transportation system investments in the United States. For a variety of reasons, the United States has had a tradition of making transport investments to address economic development goals and applying ex-post analysis to assess achievement of economic development impacts. These past studies are reviewed, as are some of the deficiencies and suggested improvements in methods for ex-post analysis.

  • Causal inference for ex-post evaluation of transport interventions

    This chapter reviews methods that seek to draw causal inference from non-experimental data and shows how they can be applied to undertake ex-post evaluation of transport interventions. In particular, the chapter discusses the underlying principles of techniques for treatment effect estimation with non-randomly assigned treatments. The aim of these techniques is to quantify changes that have occurred due to explicit intervention (or "treatment").

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