OECD Trade Policy Papers

ISSN :
1816-6873 (online)
DOI :
10.1787/18166873
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This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected trade policy studies prepared for use within the OECD.

NB. No. 1 to No. 139 were released under the previous series title OECD Trade Policy Working Papers.

 

To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade? You or your institution have access to this content

Authors:
Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon1, Jane Korinek2
Author Affiliations
  • 1: AgroCampus Ouest, Rennes, France

  • 2: OECD, France

Publication Date
10 Oct 2011
Bibliographic information
No.:
119
Pages
45
DOI
10.1787/5kg3slm7b8hg-en

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Trade deficits and surpluses are sometimes attributed to intentionally low or high exchange rate levels. The impact of exchange rate levels on trade has been much debated but the large body of existing empirical literature does not suggest an unequivocally clear picture of the trade impacts of changes in exchange rates. The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade also does not benefit from a clear theoretical cause-effect relationship. This study examines the impact of exchange rates and their volatility on trade flows in China, the Euro area and the United States in two broadly defined sectors, agriculture on the one hand and manufacturing and mining on the other. It finds that exchange volatility impacts trade flows only slightly. Exchange rate levels, on the other hand, affect trade in both agriculture and manufacturing and mining sectors but do not explain in their entirety the trade imbalances in the three countries examined.
Keywords:
trade deficit, currency movements, GARCH volatility, volatility, long-run effects, trade in agriculture, exchange hedging, US dollar, exchange rate appreciation, real exchange rates, depreciation, euro, yuan, trade, short-run effects, exchange rates
JEL Classification:
  • F01: International Economics / General / Global Outlook
  • F31: International Economics / International Finance / Foreign Exchange
  • O24: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Development Planning and Policy / Trade Policy; Factor Movement Policy; Foreign Exchange Policy
  • Q17: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture in International Trade