In recent years, China has seen an unprecedented expansion of health insurance for its population in its quest to achieve universal health coverage. By 2011, 95% of the Chinese population was insured up from less than 50% in 2005 through public or employer-based insurance schemes. As part of this move, the structure of health care financing has shifted significantly, such that public sources in 2013 funded well over half of all health spending, compared with just over a third in the early 2000s. In that context, it is important to determine the main drivers of future growth in health spending in the medium term, to assess the possible impact on public budgets. Using a component-based health expenditure model developed at the OECD, future projections of public spending on health care and long-term care are made for OECD and key emerging economies, including China. The uniform cross-country framework allows for consistent international comparisons under different cost-pressure and cost-containment scenarios.