20.5 Net interregional flows of population: Asia, Europe and Oceania, 1995-2008

20.6 Net interregional flows of population: Americas, 1995-2008

Interregional mobility within countries is an important component of the change in the demographic structure, indicating whether the ageing of certain areas is reinforced by outflows of the working age population.

Mobility between rural and urban regions of a country is quite varied: on aggregate, 60% of rural regions display net negative flows versus 50% of predominantly urban or intermediate regions. In the Czech Republic, Denmark and Japan all rural regions display net outflows of population. Rural regions in Japan will bear the largest share of the future decrease in population because of the already high incidence of elderly population reinforced by out-migration of young people. In contrast, in France, Korea and Switzerland more than 70% of predominantly urban regions have experienced net negative flows of population (Figure 20.1).

Distance to markets and services seems to be a stronger predictor of out-mobility than mere population density: in 12 out of the 13 countries considered, more remote rural regions - i.e. regions which are far in driving distance from urban agglomerations - are more likely to display net negative flows than predominantly rural regions. The exception of France is due to the recent positive mobility towards the western and southern TL3 regions (Figure 20.2).

Around 37% of OECD regions have experienced persistent out-migration in the last 15 years (i.e. they display net negative flows for at least 80% of the years observed in the data). These regions are characterised by a higher share of employment in agriculture and lower productivity in the same sector, a very low productivity of the public sector, a higher unemployment rate and lower gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Net out-migration causes these regions to become "older" . In addition, net out-migration has been towards higher population density regions (Figure 20.3).

Predominantly urban regions are the recipient of young migrants (those aged 16-24 years). In the United Kingdom, Switzerland and Norway more than 80% of young migrants move to urban regions. The mobility of young adults - one-third of the total internal mobility - is essentially a migration from rural to urban regions where higher education facilities and more diverse job opportunities can be found. The urban regions of Seoul (Korea), Madrid and Zaragoza (Spain) as well as urban regions in Switzerland and the United Kingdom attract young migrants, at the same time reporting negative net internal migration. However, thanks to international migration the total population continues to grow. The urban regions in the south of Italy, in contrast, are losing their young population and are seeing a decline in total population (Figure 20.4).

Source

OECD Regional Database: http://dotstat/wbos/.

See Annex B for data, source and country-related metadata.

Reference years and territorial level

1996-2008; TL3.

Australia and Mexico TL2.

Data for Belgium, Chile, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Iceland, Israel, New Zealand and Slovenia are not available at regional level.

Further information

Territorial grids and regional typology (Annex A)

www.oecd.org/gov/regional/statisticsindicators

M. Brezzi and M. Piacientini (2011), "Labour mobility and development dynamics in OECD regions" , Regional Development Working Papers 2011/04.

Figure notes

20.1-20.3: Latest available year: Canada, Germany and Italy 2007, France 2006 and Portugal 2001 (Census data).

20.1: Australia and Mexico are not included because data are at TL2 level.

20.2: The Czech Republic, Germany, the Netherlands and the Slovak Republic do not have predominantly remote rural regions.

20.3: Total regions = 100. For lack of time series on comparable years the Czech Republic, Denmark, Portugal and Turkey are not included.

20.3-20.5-20.6: Regions are classified as "persistent out-migration" if they experienced net negative flows for at least 80% of the years observed; as "prevalent out-migration" if they fall in the range 50-80% of the years observed; "intermittent out-migration" if between 20-50% of the years observed; "rare out-migration" if less than 20% of the years observed.

20.4: Portugal 2001