Longer life expectancies (see “Life expectancy” indicator in Chapter 3) and declining fertility rates mean that older people make up an ever-increasing proportion of the populations of OECD countries.

On average across OECD countries, the share of the population aged over 65 years has increased from less than 9% in 1960 to 15% in 2010 and is expected to nearly double in the next four decades to reach 27% in 2050 (Figure 11.1, left panel). In about two thirds of OECD countries, at least one-quarter of the population will be over 65 years of age by 2050. This proportion is expected to be especially large in Japan, Korea and Spain where nearly 40% of the population will be aged over 65 years by 2050. Population ageing will also occur rapidly in China where the share of the population over 65 is expected to triple between 2010 and 2050, to reach a level just below the OECD average. Conversely, Israel, the United States and Mexico will see a more gradual increase in the share of the elderly population due to significant inflows of migrants and higher fertility rates.

The growth in the share of the population aged 80 years and over will be even more dramatic (Figure 11.1, right panel). On average across OECD countries, 4% of the population were 80 years old and over in 2010. By 2050, the percentage will increase to 10%. In Japan, Spain and Germany, the proportion of the population aged over 80 is expected to nearly triple between 2010 and 2050 (rising from 6% to 16% in Japan and from 5% to 15% in Spain and Germany). The rise will be even faster in Korea where the share of the population aged over 80 years will grow from 2% to 14% over the next four decades. China will see similarly rapid ageing, with the share of the population aged over 80 rising from 1% to 8%.

Population ageing is a phenomenon affecting most countries around the world, but the speed of the process varies (Figure 11.2). The speed of population ageing is particularly rapid in the European Union, where the share of the population aged 80 years and over increased from 1.5% in 1960 to nearly 5% in 2010, and is expected to rise to 11% by 2050. The pace of population ageing has been slower in other parts of the world, although it is expected to accelerate in coming decades. In large partner countries including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa, only 2% of the population was 80 years and over in 2010, but this share is expected to reach around 5% by 2050.

Although the pressure that this growing proportion of people aged 65 and 80 over will put on long-term care systems will depend on the health status of people as they reach these ages, population ageing is likely to lead to greater demand for elderly care. As the share of the economically active population is expected to decline, it will also affect the financing of social protection systems and the potential supply of labour in the economy. On average across OECD countries, there were slightly more than four people of working age (15-64 years) for every person 65 years and older in 2012. This rate is projected to halve from 4.2 in 2012 to 2.1 on average across OECD countries over the next 40 years (OECD, 2013).

References

OECD (2013), OECD Pensions at a Glance 2013: OECD and G20 Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2013-en.

Note: Information on data for Israel: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933280737