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The size and growth of a country's population are both
causes and effects of economic and social developments. The pace of population growth
has slowed in all OECD countries.
Definition
Data refer to the resident population. For countries
with overseas colonies, protectorates or other territorial possessions, their
populations are generally excluded. Growth rates are the annual changes in the
population resulting from births, deaths and net migration during the year.
The total fertility rate is the total number of
children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her
child-bearing years and give birth to children in agreement with the prevailing
age-specific fertility rates.
Comparability
For most OECD countries, population data are based on
regular, ten-yearly censuses, with estimates for intercensal years derived from
administrative data. In several European countries, population estimates are based
entirely on administrative records. Population data are fairly comparable.
For some countries the population figures shown here
differ from those used for calculating GDP and other economic statistics on a per
capita basis, although differences are normally small.
Population projections are taken from national sources
where these are available, but for some countries they are based on UN or Eurostat
projections; the projection for the world comes from UN. All population projections
require assumptions about future trends in life expectancy, fertility rates and
migration. Often, a range of projections is produced using different assumptions about
these future trends. The estimates shown here correspond to the median or central
variant.
Overview
In 2010, OECD countries accounted for 18% of the
world's population of 6.9 billion. China accounted for 19% and India for 18%.
Within the OECD, in 2009, the United States accounted for 25% of the OECD total,
followed by Japan (10%), Mexico (9%), Germany (7%) and Turkey (6%).
In the three years to 2010, growth rates above the
OECD population average (0.6% per year) were recorded in Israel, Mexico and Turkey
(high birth rate countries) and in Australia, Canada, Chile, Korea, Luxembourg,
Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States (high net immigration).
New Zealand and Ireland also recorded population growth rates above the OECD total
which can be attributed to both a birth rate equal to the replacement rate and a
positive net migration rate. In Japan, Hungary and Germany, populations declined
mostly due to low birth rates. Growth rates were very low, although still
positive, in Estonia, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. The
population of OECD countries is expected to grow by less than 0.2 per cent per
year until 2050.
Total fertility rates in OECD countries have
declined dramatically over the past few decades, falling on average from 2.7 in
1970 to 1.6 children per woman of childbearing age in the 2000s. In all OECD
countries, fertility rates declined for young women and increased at older ages. A
modest recovery in total fertility rates started in 2002, to an average level of
1.7 in 2009. In 2009, the total fertility rate was below its replacement level of
2.1 in all OECD countries except Iceland, Ireland, Israel, New Zealand, and
Turkey.
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Sources
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For OECD member countries: National Sources,
United Nations and Eurostat.
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For Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the Russian
Federation and South Africa: Population Division of the Department of Economic and
Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population
Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations, New York.
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Fertility rates: OECD (2011), Society at a Glance:
OECD Social Indicators, OECD Publishing.
Further information
Analytical publications
Statistical publications
Methodological publications
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d'Addio, A.C. and M.M. d'Ercole (2005),
“Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies”, OECD Social Employment and Migration Working
Papers, No. 27.
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OECD (2011), Labour Force
Statistics, OECD Publishing.
Online databases
Websites
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| Population levels |
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| Population growth rates |
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| Total fertility rates |
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| World population |
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| OECD population |
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| Population growth rates |
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| Total fertility rates |
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