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OECD Factbook 2010: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics

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Population and migration

Population

Total population

The size and growth of a country's population are both causes and effects of economic and social developments. The pace of population growth has slowed in all OECD countries.

Definition

Data refer to the resident population. For countries with overseas colonies, protectorates or other territorial possessions, their populations are generally excluded. Growth rates are the annual changes in the population resulting from births, deaths and net migration during the year.

The total fertility rate is the total number of children that would be born to each woman if she were to live to the end of her child-bearing years and give birth to children in agreement with the prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

Comparability

For most OECD countries, population data are based on regular, ten-yearly censuses, with estimates for intercensal years derived from administrative data. In several European countries, population estimates are based entirely on administrative records. Population data are fairly comparable.

For some countries the population figures shown here differ from those used for calculating GDP and other economic statistics on a per capita basis, although differences are normally small.

Population projections are taken from national sources where these are available, but for some countries they are based on UN or Eurostat projections; the projection for the world comes from UN. All population projections require assumptions about future trends in life expectancy, fertility rates and migration. Often, a range of projections is produced using different assumptions about these future trends. The estimates shown here correspond to the median or central variant.

Overview

In 2007, OECD countries accounted for 18% of the world's population of 6.7 billion. China accounted for 20% and India for 17%. Within OECD, the United States accounted for 25% of the OECD total, followed by Japan (11%), Mexico (9%), Germany (7%) and Turkey (6%).

In the three years to 2007, growth rates above the OECD population average (0.7% per year) were recorded in Iceland, Mexico and Turkey (high birth rate countries) and in Australia, Canada, Luxembourg, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Spain and United States (high net immigration). In Hungary and Poland, populations declined due to a combination of low birth rates and net emigration. Growth rates were very low, although still positive, in Japan and the Slovak Republic. The population of OECD countries is expected to grow by less than 0.3 per cent per year until 2050.

Total fertility rates in OECD countries have declined dramatically over the past few decades, falling on average from 2.7 in 1970 to 1.6 children per woman of childbearing age in the 2000s. In all OECD countries, fertility rates declined for young women and increased at older ages. A modest recovery in total fertility rates started in 2002, to an average level of 1.7 in 2008. In 2008, the total fertility rate was below its replacement level of 2.1 in all OECD countries except New Zealand, Iceland, Ireland, Mexico, Turkey and the United States.

Sources

For OECD member countries: National Sources, United Nations and Eurostat.
For Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation and South Africa: UN World population prospects, 1950 2050 (the 2006 revision), United Nations, New York.
Fertility rates: OECD (2009), Society at a Glance: OECD Social Indicators - 2009 Edition, OECD, Paris, (See www.oecd.org/els/social/indicators/SAG).

Further information

Analytical publications

Bagnoli, P., T. Goeschl and E. Kovacs (2008), People and Biodiversity Policies: Impacts, Issues and Strategies for Policy Action, OECD, Paris.
OECD (2009), OECD Employment Outlook, OECD, Paris.

Statistical publications

Maddison, A. (2003), The World Economy: Historical Perspectives, OECD, Paris, also available on CD-ROM, www.theworldeconomy.org.
OECD (2009), Society at a Glance: OECD Social Indicators - 2009 Edition, OECD, Paris, (See www.oecd.org/els/social/indicators/SAG).

Methodological publications

d'Addio, A. C. and M. Mira d'Ercole (2005), Trends and Determinants of Fertility Rates: The Role of Policies, OECD Social Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 27, OECD, Paris.
OECD (2009), Labour Force Statistics, OECD, Paris.

Online databases

Web sites

World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision Population Database, http://esa.un.org/unpp.

World population

OECD population

Population growth rates

Total fertility rates