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03 Feb 2011
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Article
English
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Forecasting Aggregated Time Series Variables: A Survey
Helmut Lütkepohl, Pages: 1–26
in
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
Aggregated times series variables can be forecasted in different ways. For example, they may be forecasted on the basis of the aggregate series or forecasts of disaggregated variables may be obtained fi rst and then these forecasts may be ...
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03 Feb 2011
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Article
English
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Application of Three Non-Linear Econometric Approaches to Identify Business Cycles in Peru
Gabriel Rodríguez, Pages: 1–25
in
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
I use three non-linear econometric models to identify and analyze business cycles in the Peruvian economy for the period 1980:1-2008:4. The models are the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model suggested by Teräsvirta (1994), the extended ...
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03 Feb 2011
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Article
English
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An Evaluation of the Growth and Unemployment Forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Carlos Bowles, Roberta Friz, Veronique Genre, Geoff Kenny, Aidan Meyler, Tuomas Rautanen, Pages: 1–28
in
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
In this paper we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the euro area GDP growth and unemployment rate forecasts collected in the quarterly ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) over the period 1999Q1–2008Q4. Our results suggest that while SPF ...
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03 Feb 2011
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Article
English
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Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights
Klaus Abberger, Wolfgang Nierhaus, Pages: 1–13
in
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
Business cycle indicators are used to assess the economic situation of countries or regions. They are closely watched by the public, but are not easy to interpret. Does a current movement of the indicator signal a turning point or not? With the help ...
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03 Feb 2011
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Article
English
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The Industrial Cycle of Milan as an Accurate Leading Indicator for the Italian Business Cycle
Matteo M. Pelagatti, Valeria Negri, Pages: 1–17
in
OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
A coincident business cycle indicator for the Milan area is built on the basis of a monthly industrial survey carried out by Assolombarda, the largest territorial entrepreneurial association in Italy. The indicator is extracted from three time ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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New International Evidence on Asset-Price Effects on Investment, and a Survey for Consumption
E. Philip Davis, Pages: 1–50
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
A survey of the literature on asset price impacts on the real economy shows a much wider range of work on consumption and related wealth effects than on investment. The existence of wealth effects on consumption per se is little contested, but there ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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How large are competitive pressures in services markets?: Estimation of mark-ups for selected OECD countries
Novella Bottini, Margit Molnár, Pages: 1–51
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
Mark-ups can provide valuable information on competitive pressures in various sectors of the economy, reflecting pressures stemming from rules of conduct imposed by regulators as well as those arising from such factors as trade and FDI or increasing ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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What is the private return to tertiary education?: New evidence from 21 OECD countries
Romina Boarini, Hubert Strauss, Pages: 1–25
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
This article provides estimates of the private Internal Rates of Return to tertiary education for women and men in 21 OECD countries, for the years between 1991 and 2005. IRR are computed by estimating labour market premia on cross-country ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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Intergenerational Social Mobility in OECD Countries
Orsetta Causa, Åsa Johansson, Pages: 1–44
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
This paper assesses recent patterns of intergenerational social mobility across OECD countries and examines the role that public policies can play. It shows that the relationship between parental or socio-economic background and offspring ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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Equity in Student Achievement Across OECD Countries: An Investigation of the Role of Policies
Orsetta Causa, Catherine Chapuis, Pages: 1–50
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
This paper focuses on inequalities in learning opportunities for individuals coming from different socio-economic backgrounds as a measure of (in)equality of opportunity in OECD countries and provides insights on the potential role played by ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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Migration and labour market outcomes in OECD countries
Sébastien Jean, Orsetta Causa, Miguel Jimenez, Isabelle Wanner, Pages: 1–34
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
Immigration pressures are increasing in most OECD countries. This article investigates the consequences of immigration for natives’ labour market outcomes, as well as issues linked to immigrants’ integration in the host country labour market ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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Does Computer Use Increase Educational Achievements? Student-level Evidence from PISA
Vincenzo Spiezia, Pages: 1–22
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
The aim of this paper is to assess whether the use of ICT has an impact on student performances as measured in the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2006. After controlling for observable students’ characteristics and ...
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17 Jan 2011
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Article
English
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Structural indicators: A critical review
Davide Furceri, Annabelle Mourougane, Pages: 1–34
in
OECD Journal: Economic Studies
This article reviews and assesses in terms of availability, reliability and transparency, existing policy and outcome indicators that have been found to be linked both directly and indirectly to economic growth and living standards. Indicators ...
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20 Dec 2010
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Article
English
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Government funding as leverage for quality teaching and learning: a south african perspective
Sabiha Y. Essack, Indirani Naidoo, Glen Barnes, Pages: 1–13
in
Higher Education Management and Policy
The South African Higher Education Funding Framework uses funding as a lever to achieve equitable student access, quality teaching and research, and improved student retention and success. Maximising a university subsidy from the national Department ...
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20 Dec 2010
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Article
English
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The global impact of the financial crisis: main trends in developed and developing countries
Heather Eggins, Peter West, Pages: 1–16
in
Higher Education Management and Policy
The impact of the financial crisis on higher education has been considerable, and its effects are continuing. These effects can be discerned in a number of ways; but whereas both developed and developing countries are affected, they can be affected ...
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20 Dec 2010
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Article
English
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Multidimensional ranking: a new transparency tool for higher education and research
Frans van Vught, Don F. Westerheijden, Pages: 1–26
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Higher Education Management and Policy
This paper sets out to analyse the need for better "transparency tools" which inform university stakeholders about the quality of universities. First, we give an overview of what we understand by the concept of transparency tools and those that are ...
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20 Dec 2010
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Article
English
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Higher skills and the knowledge economy: the challenge of offshoring
John Craig, Andrew Gunn, Pages: 1–17
in
Higher Education Management and Policy
Recent economics literature on offshoring highlights the trend towards the relocation of high-skill jobs to emerging economies. This evolution presents a challenge to the established knowledge economy discourse on which the relationship between ...
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20 Dec 2010
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Article
English
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Project economy approaches for higher education: diversifying the revenue base of German universities
Ingo Rollwagen, Pages: 1–21
in
Higher Education Management and Policy
Structural changes and budget constraints are challenging German higher education institutions to change their management practices. This exploratory analysis discusses how institutions are increasing their collaborative efforts – and are doing so ...
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20 Dec 2010
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Article
English
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Sustaining leadership in challenging times
Robin Middlehurst, Pages: 1–19
in
Higher Education Management and Policy
Some governments hit by recession have chosen to invest in higher education as part of long-term economic and social development and international competitiveness agendas; others have opted for a route of cuts, financial stringency and contraction ...
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16 Dec 2010
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Working/Policy Paper
English
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Reforming China's Monetary Policy Framework to Meet Domestic Objectives
Paul Conway, Richard Herd, Thomas Chalaux, Pages: 51
in
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
As a result of reforms and financial sector development, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) now exerts significant control over money market interest rates. With money market conditions increasingly influencing effective commercial lending rates, the PBoC is also able to affect the cost of...
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