Documents de travail du Forum international des transports
Cette série d’étude s’adresse à un large public. Il s’agit généralement d’un travail collectif, mais les noms des principaux auteurs sont cités. Ces documents existent en général uniquement dans leur version originale – anglais ou français – avec un résumé dans l’autre langue.
- ISSN : 2223439X (en ligne)
- https://doi.org/10.1787/2223439X
International Freight and Related CO2 Emissions by 2050: A New Modelling Tool
International trade has grown rapidly in the post-war era with trade volume growing twenty-seven fold between 1950 and 2007, three times faster than world GDP growth (WTO, 2007). Growth in trade is expected to outpace the GDP growth also over the next 50 years, according to recent OECD projections. The value of international trade is estimated to grow by a factor of four by 2050 in real terms (Fontagné et al., 2014). Trade patterns will however change due to fragmentation of production processes and integration of emerging markets into global markets. Trade liberalisation, either at global or regional level, will also have an impact on global patterns.