OECD Trade Policy Papers

ISSN :
1816-6873 (en ligne)
DOI :
10.1787/18166873
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This series is designed to make available to a wider readership selected trade policy studies prepared for use within the OECD.

NB. No. 1 to No. 139 were released under the previous series title OECD Trade Policy Working Papers.

 

Trade Effects of Exchange Rates and their Volatility: Chile and New Zealand You or your institution have access to this content

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Auteur(s):
Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon1, Jane Korinek
Author Affiliations
  • 1: AgroCampus Ouest, Rennes, France

Date de publication
22 mars 2012
Bibliographic information
N°:
136
Pages
48
DOI
10.1787/5k9cvpldq533-en

Cacher / Voir l'abstract

Trade deficits and surpluses are sometimes attributed to intentionally low or high exchange rate levels. The impact of exchange rate levels on trade has been much debated but the large body of existing empirical literature does not suggest an unequivocally clear picture of the trade impacts of changes in exchange rates. In addition, much of the evidence on this subject considers currencies of large economies, and overwhelmingly the United States.

This study examines the impact of exchange rates and their volatility on trade flows in two small, open economies – Chile and New Zealand – with three major trading partners, in two broadly defined sectors – agriculture on the one hand and manufacturing and mining on the other. It finds that exchange volatility impacts trade flows in the small, open economies more than was found for larger economies. Findings do not clearly indicate the direction of the impact, i.e. whether this volatility increases or decreases trade in all countries and sectors. Exchange rate levels, on the other hand, affect trade in both agriculture and manufacturing and mining sectors although their magnitude differs depending on the trading partner and sector. Moreover, this study indicates that a depreciation in the exchange rates in Chile and New Zealand would not lead to a strong change in their trade balances with three main trading partners across the board.

Mots-clés:
exchange hedging, Chile, long-run effects, short-run effects, depreciation, exchange rates, New Zealand dollar, volatility, exchange rate appreciation, New Zealand, trade deficit, real exchange rates, trade, Chilean peso, currency movements, small open economies, GARCH volatility, trade in agriculture
Classification JEL:
  • F1: International Economics / Trade
  • F31: International Economics / International Finance / Foreign Exchange
  • O24: Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth / Development Planning and Policy / Trade Policy; Factor Movement Policy; Foreign Exchange Policy
  • Q17: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics / Agriculture / Agriculture in International Trade