Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2012

Market Trends and Projections to 2017

Agence Internationale de l'Energie

Anglais

Auteur(s):: AIE

Date de publication :: 07 nov 2012
Pages :: 144
ISBN :: 9789264188471 (PDF)
DOI :: 10.1787/9789264188471-en

Supply shortfalls – from the Libyan civil war in 2011 and international sanctions on Iran in 2012 to a swathe of unplanned non-OPEC output stoppages – have buffeted the oil market, sending prices near 2008 highs and rekindling debate on the role of speculation in fuelling volatility. There have also been success stories. Growth in North American light, tight oil and non-conventional supply has reached game-changing levels. Iraqi production has scaled new heights, the Libyan production recovery in 2012 defied expectations and Saudi output surged to 30-year highs. On the demand front, the economic recovery has lost momentum. Market share continues to shift from mature to newly industrialised economies, but amid persistent concerns about the health of the former; China, the leading engine of oil demand growth of the last 15 years, is giving signs of slowdown.

Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows.

At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.

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Table des matières

Foreword Acknowledgements
Overview
-An oil market caught between crisis and normality
-Renewed focus on supply-side risks
-A new oil map
-Demand
-Supply
-Biofuels
-Crude trade
-Refining and product supply
-Oil pricing
Oil Pricing
-Summary
-Recent price developments
-Methodology for calculating the IEA average import price
-Emerging issues in oil markets
--Volatility in crude oil prices prices
--The impact of speculation on prices
-Exchange rates and oil prices
--Monetary policy and oil prices
--Cross-market correlations
-Market regulation
-References
Demand
-Summary
-Reduced expectations of demand growth
--A weaker macroeconomic backdrop
--Baseline revisions leave forecast starting from a lower base
-Continued shifts in the global demand map
--Non-OECD demand dominates projected growth
--Absolute declines envisaged in the OECD
-Middle Empire: demand growth favours the middle of the barrel
--Transportation fuel continue to underpin growth
--Gasoil/Diesel to gain a still larger share of the demand mix
--Robust expansions foreseen in LPG and Naphtha
--Gasoline and jet fuel: a tale of two regions
--Flat fuel oil demand trend
-Is China taking a back seat in non-OECD demand growth?
--Signs of slowdown in Chinese demand
--Other non-OECD economies continue to depict strong gains
-Issues in inter-fuel substitution
--Fuel switching prospects in the US ’golden age’ of natural gas
--Nuclear dilemma
--Uncertainty Supply
-Summary
-Global oil supply overview
--Deepwater trends
--Cost inflation and investment trends
-Non-OPEC overview
--Trends and risks
--Revisions to forecast
-Region- and country-level analysis
--OECD Americas
--North Sea
--Middle East and Africa
--Other Africa: Equatorial Guinea, Ghana, Uganda
--Latin America
--Former Soviet Union
--Non-OECD Asia
-Non-crude liquids and other market drivers
-OPEC crude oil capacity outlook
--Contrasting outlook for Middle East producers
--OPEC’s African producers post strong growth, Algeria the exception
--OPEC’s Latin America capacity hindered by political agendas
-OPEC natural gas liquids supply
Biofuels
-Sustained medium-term growth, but short-term challenges ahead
--Advanced biofuels
Crude Trade
-Summary
-Overview and methodology
-Regional trade
Refining and Product Supply
-Summary
-Refinery investment overview: diverging trends continue
-Refinery utilisation and throughputs: spare refining capacity on the rise
-Product supply balances: what a difference a year makes
--Middle distillates markets remain tight
--Light distillates moving towards oversupply
--Fuel oil markets see unexpected strength
-Regional developments
--North America: birth of an export hub
--Europe: industry woes continue
--Pacific: renewed demand strength and exports lift utilisation rates
--China: key contributor to capacity growth but outlook unclear
--Non-OECD Asia: India continues to dominate
--Latin America: delays keep oil product imports high
--Middle East: additional refinery output surpassing demand growth – for now
--Former Soviet Union
--Africa: Little progress seen in adding capacity in the medium term