Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2012
Agence Internationale de l'Energie
Date de publication
13 juin 2012
; 9789264177970 (imprimé)
With ample recoverable resources, natural gas seems destined for a bright future. It nevertheless faces many challenges to increase its share in the primary energy mix, including insufficient upstream development, inadequate pricing structure, competition from other fuels, and geopolitical issues.
The IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2012 reviews how gas markets managed the challenges of 2011, from the consequences of the Fukushima incident to the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa to a further deteriorating economy. It gives detailed gas supply, demand and trade forecasts up to 2017, by region as well as for key countries, while investigating many of today’s crucial questions:
-Will regional gas markets diverge further or will the shale gas revolution spread worldwide?
-Will North America become a significant LNG exporter?
-Can China meet its goal of doubling gas consumption in four years?
-Will natural gas replace nuclear energy in key OECD member countries?
-Can gas finally overtake coal in the US power sector?
-Can a spot price emerge in Asia?
Amid a fragile economy and widely diverging regional gas prices, the report provides an in-depth look at future changes in trade patterns as markets absorb a second wave of LNG supply. The Medium-Term Gas Market Report tests the upper limit of gas demand in the United States, analyses European gas consumption’s struggle to recover, and assesses the potential of new suppliers.
-World gas demand is not quite back on its previous growth track
-OECD: Japan LNG imports surged; UK demand dropped even more
-Non-OECD gas demand
Medium-term gas demand forecasts: growing amid uncertainties
-World gas demand reaches new highs
-OECD region: Europe looks for a floor and Americas for a ceiling
Sectoral focus: why is switching from coal to gas not occurring on a much larger scale in the United States?
-The dash for gas
-Potentially switchable gas capacity
-Factors affecting the utilisation of the switchable capacity
-Understanding the specificities of the US power sector
-Looking forward to retirement, coal plants?
Regional focus: what Chinese gas demand of 273 bcm in 2017 means for the world
-China is the fourth largest gas user in the world
-Understanding China’s pricing issue
-Attracting sufficient supply is also a question of infrastructure
-Gas demand increases at 13% per year
-The United States leads 2011 global supply growth
-OECD markets: plus, minus, equal
Where will new supply come from over 2011-17?
-US gas production defies gravity
-The Caspian region
-The Middle East will serve exclusively its domestic gas market
-LNG markets: a healthy growth
-Interregional pipeline trade
-Recent infrastructure developments
Medium-term infrastructure investments: the race to bring gas to markets
-2009-20: accelerate, pause, accelerate
-Committed liquefaction projects: the 500 bcm mark is getting close
-New committed projects will be more expensive
-Where is the next wave of LNG supply to come from?
Developing import infrastructure
-Europe: is there a need for new import infrastructure?
-Mexico, Latin America and the Middle East
-Global trade developments are shifting to Asia
International pricing environment: back to your corner?
-Asian price developments
-European price developments
-US price developments
-Development of a trading hub in Asia
-Spot market developments
Regulatory development in Europe