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The Medium-Term Coal Market Report-2012 provides IEA forecasts on coal markets for the coming five years as well as an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global coal demand, supply and trade. The annual report shows that while coal continues to be a growing source of primary energy worldwide, its future is increasingly linked to non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, and to the rise of natural gas.
The international coal market is experiencing dynamic changes. In 2011, China alone accounted for more than three-quarters of incremental coal production, while domestic consumption was more than three times that of global trade. Low gas prices associated with the shale gas revolution caused a marked decrease in coal use in the United States, the world’s second-largest consumer. This led US thermal coal producers to seek other markets, which resulted in an oversupply of coal in Europe and a significant gas-to-coal switch. Meanwhile, China overtook Japan as the largest importer of coal, and Indonesia overtook Australia as the world’s largest exporter on a tonnage basis.
The report examines the pronounced role the Chinese and Indian economies will exert on the international coal trade through 2017. In the report’s Base Case Scenario, China accounts for over half of global consumption from 2014, and India surpasses the United States as the world’s second-largest consumer of coal in 2017. The report also offers a Chinese Slowdown Case, a hypothetical scenario which shows that even if Chinese GDP growth slowed to 4.6% average over the period, the country’s coal consumption would continue to grow.
Korea, the world’s thirteenth-largest economy and the seventh-largest exporter, is an energy-intensive nation. In 2008, the country adopted a long-term “green growth” strategy to foster economic development by means of low-carbon technologies and clean energy; since then, the government has implemented many policies to support these goals.
In 2012, Korea announced an emissions-trading scheme -- the first of its kind in Asia -- which will be implemented in 2015. This represents a major step towards achieving its target of a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Strong energy efficiency policies have been developed to complement the emissions-reduction target. Korea has made efforts to enhance energy security by taking measures to diversify energy sources, reduce the use of fossil fuels and foster the development of renewable energy alongside the expansion of its nuclear energy programme. Government expenditure on energy-related RD&D is among the highest in the OECD.
Progress in some sectors has been slower, and the lack of a clear, long-term vision for its electricity and natural gas markets is one of the greatest energy-policy challenges facing the Korean government. Energy markets are dominated by incumbents and have been slow to open up to competition.
This review analyses the energy-policy challenges facing Korea and provides sector-based assessments and recommendations for further policy improvements. It is intended to help guide the country towards a more secure and sustainable energy future.
Technological innovation can lower the cost of achieving environmental objectives, so it is important to understand how environmental policy design and technological innovation are linked. This is particularly true in the area of climate change where the estimated future costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are affected greatly by the technological trajectory of the economy. While we suspect that public policy can play an important role in accelerating the development and diffusion of climate change mitigation and adaptation technologies, empirical evidence in this area remains scant. This book presents a series of papers that explore the extent to which technological innovation can lower the cost of achieving climate change mitigation objectives.
The energy sector is a significant contributor to the Australian economy. Exports have more than tripled over the past decade and surging economic and social expansion in relatively nearby emerging economies such as China and India has driven significant demand for Australian energy and mineral resources. This boom is widely forecast to continue in the coming decades.
Late in 2011, the Australian government released a draft energy white paper, which sets out a comprehensive strategic policy framework to guide the development of the energy sector. Also in 2011, the Australian government announced a climate change plan including a wide-ranging package of clean-energy proposals and the introduction of a carbon price mechanism accompanied by significant levels of financial support for innovation in clean-energy technologies.
The scale of Australia’s energy policy ambitions is enormous and very costly even for a resource-rich nation. Significant investments will be needed for the clean-energy transition and building the infrastructure necessary to expand the domestic resource base. This review analyses the energy-policy challenges facing Australia and provides critiques and recommendations for further policy improvements. It is intended to help guide the country towards a more secure and sustainable energy future.
Hydropower could double its contribution by 2050, reaching 2 000 GW of global capacity and over 7 000 TWh. This achievement, driven primarily by the quest of clean electricity, could prevent annual emissions of up to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 from fossil-fuel plants. The bulk of this growth would come from large plants in emerging economies and developing countries.
Hydroelectricity’s many advantages include reliability, proven technology, large storage capacity, and very low operating and maintenance costs. Hydropower is highly flexible, a precious asset for electricity network operators, especially given rapid expansion of variable generation from other renewable energy technologies such as wind power and photovoltaics. Many hydropower plants also provide flood control, irrigation, navigation and freshwater supply.
The technology roadmap for Hydropower details action needed from policy makers to allow hydroelectric production to double, and addresses necessary conditions, including resolving environmental issues and gaining public acceptance.
In recognition of fundamental changes in the way governments approach energy-related environmental issues, the IEA has prepared this publication on CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. This annual publication was first published in 1997 and has become an essential tool for analysts and policy makers in many international fora such as the Conference of the Parties.
The data in this book are designed to assist in understanding the evolution of the emissions of CO2 from 1971 to 2010 for more than 140 countries and regions by sector and by fuel. Emissions were calculated using IEA energy databases and the default methods and emission factors from the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.
Industry and government decision-makers and others with a stake in the energy sector all need WEO-2012. It presents authoritative projections of energy trends through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, environmental sustainability and economic development.
Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, together with an update on climate change issues. Global energy demand, production, trade, investment and carbon dioxide emissions are broken down by region or country, by fuel and by sector.
Special strategic analyses cover
-What unlocking the purely economic potential for energy efficiency could do, country by country and sector by sector, for energy markets, the economy and the environment.
-The Iraqi energy sector, examining both its importance in satisfying the country’s own needs and its crucial role in meeting global oil and gas demand.
-An examination of the cost of delaying action on climate change.
-The water-energy nexus,as water resources become increasingly stressed and access more contentious.
-Measures of progress towards providing universal access to modern energy services.
There are many uncertainties; but many decisions cannot wait. The insights of WEO‑2012 are invaluable to those who must shape our energy future.
Those developments have challenged earlier assumptions and significantly changed the oil market outlook for the next five years. The IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) – companion to the monthly OMR – draws their implications for the future. It provides detailed projections for oil supply at field level, crude quality trends, demand by product, refined product output and oil investments through 2017. It examines oil price formation, regulatory changes, OPEC dynamics and the future of spare capacity – while also reviewing the contribution of new supplies from deepwater, light tight oil, biofuel and natural gas liquids. It explores how market changes are reshaping the refining industry – and what that means for trade flows.
At a time of heightened economic and geopolitical risk, MTOMR is essential reading for anyone interested in oil market dynamics and in understanding the oil market context in which these risks are playing out.
This report addresses the increasingly important interactions of variable renewables and dispatchable energy technologies, such as nuclear power, in terms of their effects on electricity systems. These effects add costs to the production of electricity, which are not usually transparent. The report recommends that decision-makers should take into account such system costs and internalise them according to a “generator pays” principle, which is currently not the case. Analysing data from six OECD/NEA countries, the study finds that including the system costs of variable renewables at the level of the electricity grid increases the total costs of electricity supply by up to one-third, depending on technology, country and penetration levels. In addition, it concludes that, unless the current market subsidies for renewables are altered, dispatchable technologies will increasingly not be replaced as they reach their end of life and consequently security of supply will suffer. This implies that significant changes in management and cost allocation will be needed to generate the flexibility required for an economically viable coexistence of nuclear energy and renewables in increasingly decarbonised electricity systems.
Ukraine’s energy sector faces unprecedented challenges, from a heavy reliance on expensive fossil-fuel imports to inefficient infrastructure and markets. Yet there is also potential for Ukraine to experience an energy revolution, one that could boost employment, lift economic growth and enhance energy security. Modernisation of Ukraine’s energy-supply sectors has only begun and will require investment on a huge scale, complemented by a fundamental reform of the business environment. A strong dependency on oil and gas imports and often-inefficient energy production, transportation and supply sectors means that reducing energy demand must be a greater priority. The potential for energy efficiency gains in the residential, district heating and industrial sectors is large. Endowed with large conventional energy reserves, alongside sizeable renewable potential, Ukraine can build the capacity to significantly increase its resource production.
Releasing this potential will require deep regulatory reform and full implementation of international treaty provisions. Effective competition, alongside a progressive move towards market prices, will also help Ukraine attract investment to develop the sector. A draft energy strategy, which sets out a series of supply-side measures, was published in 2012. Broadening and implementing a comprehensive energy strategy, one that takes greater account of demand-side policies, could significantly improve progress in the medium term.
This review analyses the large energy-policy challenges facing Ukraine and provides recommendations for further policy improvements. It is intended to help guide policy makers in the country towards a more secure and sustainable energy future.
In many OECD countries, governments have invested large amounts of public money to support renewable energy (RE) development and are requiring significant quantities of it to be sold by energy providers. But what are the economic impacts of these policies on the rural regions where deployment takes place? How can RE bring the greatest benefit to host regions? These are some of the questions explored by this study. Drawing on case studies in 16 regions within 10 countries, the research finds that while RE indeed represents an opportunity for stimulating economic growth in rural communities, its development benefits are not automatic. Realising them requires a complex and flexible policy framework and a long-term strategy, as well as a realistic appreciation of the potential gains from RE deployment. Making a positive connection between RE development and local economic growth will require more coherent strategies, the right set of local conditions, and a place-based approach to deployment.
The Technology Roadmap Bioenergy for Heat and Power highlights the importance of bioenergy in providing heat in the buildings sector and in industry, and shows what contribution it could make to meeting steadlily growing world electricity demand. The critical role of sustainability as well as the importance of international trade in meeting the projected demand for bioenergy, are highlighted in the roadmap, as well as the need for large-scale biomass plants in providing The roadmap identifies key actions by different stakeholders in the bioenergy sector, and sets out milestones for technology development in order to achieve a doubling of global bioenergy supply by 2050. It addresses the need for further R&D efforts, highlights measures to ensure sustainability of biomass production, and underlines the need for international collaboration to enhance the production and use of sustainable, modern bioenergy in different world regions.
This roadmap explores the potential improvement of existing technologies to enhance the average fuel economy of motorised vehicles; the roadmap’s vision is to achieve a 30% to 50% reduction in fuel use per kilometre from new road vehicles including 2-wheelers, LDV s and HDV s) around the world in 2030, and from the stock of all vehicles on the road by 2050. This achievement would contribute to significant reductions in GHG emissions and oil use, compared to a baseline projection. Different motorised modes are treated separately, with a focus on LDV s, HDV s and powered two-wheelers. A section on in-use fuel economy also addresses technical and nontechnical parameters that could allow fuel economy to drastically improve over the next decades. Technology cost analysis and payback time show that significant progress can be made with low or negative cost for fuel-efficient vehicles over their lifetime use. Even though the latest data analysed by the IEA for fuel economy between 2005 and 2008 showed that a gap exists in achieving the roadmap’s vision, cutting the average fuel economy of road motorised vehicles by 30% to 50% by 2030 is achievable, and the policies and technologies that could help meet this challenge are already deployed in many places around the world.
This volume contains data for 2009 and 2010 on the supply and consumption of coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, heat, renewables and waste presented as comprehensive energy balances. Data are expressed in thousand tonnes of oil equivalent for over 100 non-OECD countries.
Historical tables summarise production, trade and final consumption data as well as key energy and economic indicators. These tables also include preliminary estimates of 2011 production (and trade when available) for natural gas, primary coal and oil. This book includes definitions of products and flows, explanatory notes on the individual country data and conversion factors from original units to energy units.
More detailed data in original units are published in the 2012 edition of Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, the sister volume of this publication.
This volume contains data for 2009 and 20010 on energy supply and consumption in original units for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, heat, renewables and waste for over 100 non-OECD countries. Historical tables summarise data on production, trade, final consumption and oil demand by product. These tables also include preliminary estimates of 2011 production (and trade when available) for natural gas, primary coal and oil. The book also includes definitions of products and flows and explanatory notes on the individual country data and sources.
In the 2012 edition of Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, the sister volume of this publication, the data are presented as comprehensive energy balances expressed in tonnes of oil equivalent.
A detailed reference work on gas supply and demand covering not only the OECD countries but also the rest of the world, this publication contains essential information on LNG and pipeline trade, gas reserves, storage capacity and prices.
The main part of the book, however, concentrates on OECD countries, showing a detailed supply and demand balance for each country and for the three OECD regions: Americas, Asia-Oceania and Europe, as well as a breakdown of gas consumption by end-user. Import and export data are reported by source and destination.
Natural Gas Information is one of a series of annual IEA statistical publication on major energy sources; other reports are Coal Information, Electricity Information, Oil Information and Renewables Information.
The solar heating and cooling (SHC) roadmap outlines a pathway for solar energy to supply almost one sixth (18 EJ) of the world’s total energy use for both heating and cooling by 2050. This would save some 800 megatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per year; more than the total CO2 emissions in Germany in 2009. While solar heating and cooling today makes a modest contribution to world energy demand, the roadmap envisages that if concerted action is taken by governments and industry, solar energy could annually produce more than 16% of total final energy use for low temperature heat and nearly 17% for cooling. Given that global energy demand for heat represents almost half of the world’s final energy use – more than the combined global demand for electricity and transport – solar heat can make a significant contribution in both tackling climate change and strengthening energy security.
Ce rapport met en évidence les défis auxquels doivent faire face les producteurs et les consommateurs d’énergie, et la manière dont ils peuvent les relever par le jeu des politiques de croissance verte. Dans la mesure où l’énergie sous-tend l’économie mondiale, les décisions prises aujourd’hui dans le secteur énergétique joueront un rôle crucial dans la mise en oeuvre d’une croissance plus verte. C’est l’occasion ou jamais d’établir un cadre d’action en faveur de la transformation de ce secteur, notamment en encourageant l’innovation technologique et l’émergence de nouveaux marchés et de nouvelles industries, afin de réduire l’intensité carbone du secteur et d’améliorer l’efficacité énergétique.
Key World Energy Statistics from the IEA contains timely, clearly-presented data on the supply, transformation and consumption of all major energy sources.