As detailed in the new issue of the OECD’s brief series Education Indicators in Focus, by the year 2020, more than 200 million 25-34 year-olds in OECD and G20 countries will have higher education degrees, and 40% of them will be from China and India alone. By contrast, the United States and the European Union countries are expected to account for just over a quarter of young people with higher education degrees in OECD and G20 countries.

What’s more, the rapid expansion of higher education in non-OECD G20 countries has significantly altered the distribution of the talent pool among countries. A decade ago, one in six 25-34 year-olds with a higher education degree was from the United States, a similar proportion was from China, 12% came from the Russian Federation, and about 10% each were from Japan and India. But according to OECD estimates, in 2010 China moved to the head of the pack, accounting for 18% of 25-34 year-olds with higher education. The United States followed with 14%, the Russian Federation and India each had 11%, and Japan had 7%.

These trends are likely to only intensify further in the years ahead – raising key questions as to how the labour market will absorb the swelling number of better-educated people in the future.

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