This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Greek business cycle from early 1970 to late 2012, against the backdrop of the late 2000s global recession and the most recent domestic economic developments, which once again stress the ...

This paper develops a set of leading indicators for industrial production growth and changes in consumer price inflation by accounting for changes in the policy regime that have occurred for the Turkish economy over the sample period 1988-2010. The ...

This paper proposes a novel wavelet-based approach for constructing composite indicators. The wavelet-based methodology exploits the ability of wavelet analysis to analyse the relationships between variables on a scale-by-scale, rather than ...

We propose a transparent way of establishing a turning point chronology for the euro area business cycle. Our analysis is achieved by exploiting the concept of recurrence plots, in particular distance plots, to characterise and detect turning points ...

This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing ...