Following a rapid and forceful recovery from the deep recession – pre-crisis real GDP was reached again in the second quarter of 2011 – growth has slowed and the outlook has weakened considerably. First, this reflects a moderation of growth rates from their cyclical highs towards their lower potential rates, indicating that the prior upswing was mainly a cyclical one. Second, this slowing is reinforced by a generalised slowing of the world economy, unusually high uncertainty and business confidence that is declining from high levels.