OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2014 Issue 2
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances. Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, chapters summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
Russian Federation
The economy is bottoming out, barely avoiding a recession. The falling oil price and the tensions regarding the conflict in Ukraine are undermining investor and consumer confidence. The rouble has sharply depreciated as a result of both factors, which has cushioned the economy to some extent. The strength of the recovery will depend on the flexibility of the economy and its ability to increase trade with non-sanctioning countries. Such a redirection of trade takes time, and real GDP is accordingly projected to stagnate next year, before slowly accelerating to around 1½ per cent in 2016 in the wake of an import-substituting investment recovery.