OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2010 Issue 2
The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the current economic situation and examines the economic policies required to foster a sustained recovery in member countries. This issue covers the outlook to end-2012 for both OECD countries and selected non-OECD economies. Together with a wide range of cross-country statistics, the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments.
In addition to the themes featured regularly, this issue contains a special chapter entitled “Fiscal consolidation: Requirements, timing, instruments and institutional arrangements. It addresses the following questions: How much budget consolidation is required in individual OECD countries to stabilise the ratio of government debt to GDP and what are the requirements to bring gross debt ratios to 60% of GDP? What factors should determine the appropriate speed of consolidation? What instruments should be employed for consolidation and what kind of public spending should be cut and what kind of taxes should be raised? What fiscal rules and institutions are most likely to foster consolidation?
United States
After turning around briskly in the second half of 2009 and into the early part of this year, US economic growth slowed in the second and third quarters of 2010. Fiscal support continues to be substantial, but the effect of the stimulus on growth is diminishing and is assumed to turn negative in future quarters. The pace of the recovery is projected to remain moderate through 2011-2012 as households continue to rebuild net worth and the unemployment rate declines slowly.